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Abenomics: The first arrow has silent Impact on Japan’s exports and the yen, why?

23 November 2016

Since the launch of the Abenomics in early 2013, the focus has largely been on its first arrow, the aggressive monetary stimulus which the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kick-started in April 2013.

Uncertainty ahead of Trump administration but fundamentals remain constructive

23 November 2016

Following the outcome of the US elections, the longer-term implications for fixed income markets are still unclear. Given the uncertainty around a Donald Trump presidency, volatility may remain elevated until the way forward becomes more apparent. But to us the fundamentals for the US economy continue to be constructive, underpinned by the backdrop of strength in the labor market and demand from consumers. Though the policies of the new administration may influence some sectors more than others in 2017 and beyond, we believe the passage of the election and the economy’s current solid, if somewhat sluggish, expansion should in turn give the US Federal Reserve (Fed) enough confidence to further tighten monetary policy, albeit at a very measured pace.

Questions on Trumponomics

22 November 2016

Are we on the verge of a shift in the global macroeconomic environment? That seems to be the overarching question as investors still try to come to terms with the Donald Trump presidency. Since the global financial crisis, the world has been stuck in a steady growth, low inflation rut, punctuated by the odd crisis. The US is a case in point: between 1950 and 2008, US real economic growth averaged 3.4% and inflation 3.8%, but from 2010 onwards, the averages are 2% and 1.6% respectively. Interest rates have been close to zero over the latter period as a result.

Why markets are more cautious about the next potential political pitfall

21 November 2016

Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election may serve as a warning sign to Europe that populism can happen on a large scale. In Europe, generally speaking, populism has so far been confined to smaller countries. But there are already signs of increasing populism country by country across Europe, and that’s something we think European politicians are going to have to deal with. While we’re not expecting these populist movements to sweep to power imminently in upcoming elections, we think the polls suggest a malaise among many citizens, and that means the so-called European political elite need to listen to voters.

quick poll

Question

If you had to choose one approach to protect your hard-earned investment cash from today’s market madness, which would it be?

Answer