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Eurozone looks to heal its Greek crisis rifts

16 July 2015

Overall it seems to us that the new bailout deal agreed to by the Greek government and its creditors on Monday (July 13), and now approved by the Greek parliament, is worse for the Greek people as it is likely to lead to further austerity than the one put before the Greek voters—and rejected—in a referendum at the beginning of the month.

Greece’s precarious position

14 July 2015

Three professionals from Templeton Global Equity Group, Norm Boersma, Cindy Sweeting and Heather Arnold, offer their perspective on the recent developments in Greece. The strong vote the weekend of July 4th against austerity in Greece increases the odds of a “Grexit” or Greek exit from the Eurozone, in our view. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has interpreted the results as strengthening his position versus creditors in negotiations, but it is possible that Tsipras may be more conciliatory on the margin given the dire circumstances facing Greece and its banking system, and the desire of the majority of Greek voters to stay in the Eurozone. Eurozone policymakers, however, will likely hold firm and not make many concessions to Greece. We think they will need to avoid enabling populist movements elsewhere in Europe and are under mounting pressure from their own constituencies who are becoming increasingly unwilling to allow for flexibility in negotiations. The news of Greek finance minister Varoufakis’ resignation is being perceived as an incremental positive for negotiations, but we think the “No” vote in Greece over the first weekend in July, the precarious position of the Greek banking system, and Eurozone policymaker distrust of the current Greek government have clearly raised the chances of a Greek Eurozone exit.

Greece: A ‘No’ vote means difficult negotiations ahead

08 July 2015

Greek voters delivered a resounding ‘No’ at the July 5 referendum, with 61.3% rejecting the reform proposals in exchange for loans of the bailout creditors. The Greek Prime Minister will ask to foreign lenders for a new financing programme including debt restructuring. The Greek finance minister resigned yesterday in order to facilitate the resumption of negotiations.

Greece ‘no’ vote triggers increasingly challenging negotiations

07 July 2015

Real GDP growth in Greece averaged 4.1% per annum between 2000 and 2007, but plunged to an annual average decline of c.4.0% in the years following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). With the GFC exacerbating their financial troubles, Greece’s government debt-to-GDP ratio soared from 97% at the end of 2008 to 174% more recently.

quick poll

Question

If you had to hazard a guess, when do you reckon the COFI Bill will be signed into law?

Answer

2026, as promised 2027 looks more likely Impossible to say More consultation needed

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