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From Venezuela with love: Lessons for SA

11 September 2018

The reality of South Africa’s economic quagmire has finally sunk in with the announcement that the country had slipped into a technical recession in the second quarter of this year, adding fuel to populist demands for greater political intervention in the economy.

Surprise recession: SA feels the after-effects of years of policy mismanagement & corruption

10 September 2018

We had the surprise announcement on Tuesday (4 September) that growth in the second quarter of this year was again negative (-0.7%). We use the word “again”, because the first quarter was also negative at -2.6%, with two successive quarters of negative growth triggering the term “recession”. We had anticipated a marginally positive number on Tuesday with broad-based tepid growth being dragged down by agriculture and manufacturing. As it turns out, agriculture was a drag on growth but so too were the transport and telecoms sector and consumption – something we hadn’t anticipated and are investigating further.

As if a recession is not bad enough, low growth lies ahead

05 September 2018

Not only has South Africa entered a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP), future growth expectations are now likely to be revised down.

Strong US economy showing few signs of trade concerns

23 August 2018

The US economy has continued to perform well on many fronts, with positive readings for growth, employment and inflation. In terms of growth, the stimulus effect from tax cuts was clearly visible in second-quarter 2018 data, and could be maintained for at least another quarter, in our view. We would expect to see a gradual rise in both wage growth and the rate of inflation, as companies respond to labour market shortages and try to push through price increases. We believe the main uncertainty facing the economy remains the ultimate impact of the Trump administration’s trade policies. As the mid-term congressional elections approach—and with little sign of negative economic or political consequences domestically from President Donald Trump’s actions thus far—any tempering of his administration’s unilateral agenda on trade seems unlikely.

quick poll

Question

If you had to hazard a guess, when do you reckon the COFI Bill will be signed into law?

Answer

2026, as promised 2027 looks more likely Impossible to say More consultation needed

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