The “lies, damned lies & statistics” pay-line: Why economists say SA’s 51% quarter-on-quarter GDP contraction is no big deal
Jane and Joe Average had an inkling that South Africa’s 2020 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers would be bad; but nothing prepared them for the staggering 51% decline plastered over online news sites and social media platforms from 8 September 2020. “Real GDP, measured by production, decreased by a record 51,0% in the second quarter of 2020,” wrote Statistics South Africa, with the ‘for economists only’ disclaimer: “Growth rates, unless otherwise stated, are quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised”. Journalists immediately latched onto the 51% number as indicative of a halving of the economy. “Not correct!” scream the economists.