‘Schizophrenia or rational exuberance?’
The schizophrenic sentiment that has historically characterised China’s equity markets has been further cemented by the extraordinary rally that has taken place over the past six months. Heading into 2015, a China ‘hard-landing scenario’ and the inevitable shockwaves it would bring to global markets would have been at, or near, the top of potential risks for many investors. Whilst a significant economic slowdown is indeed unfolding, year to date returns for the domestic Shanghai index and Hong Kong H-share index are +32.8%* and 21.3%* respectively, highlighting a stark divergence between economic performance and share price action. An obvious conclusion is that China is hyperventilating, but several recent developments suggest there may be an additional dynamic to this rally.