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Silver Linings Playbook

24 July 2023 Old Mutual Wealth Investment Strategist, Izak Odendaal

A mystery explosion caused death and mayhem in the Johannesburg CBD last week, and much head-scratching. However, it was otherwise mostly a good news week in South Africa.

Starting with inflation, data from Stats SA showed that the pace of increase in consumer prices slowed to 5.4% year-on-year in June. This is down from a peak of 7.8% in July 2022, meaning that the worst is behind us. Notably, food inflation has eased from 14% to 11%, while annual fuel inflation fell from 56% to -8%. These are typically the items people notice most since they are regular purchases. Many people equate food and fuel inflation with inflation. Therefore, the relief is great.

However, while important, food and fuel make up less than 20% of the overall consumer price index. Excluding these items, yields the so-called core inflation rate.

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