Investments / Economy

Rate cut bets at odds with solid economic outlook

Trump’s Trade Tactics and Our Repo Rate? A Global Tug-of-War Hits SA Monetary Policy

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lowered the Repo policy rate by a further 0.25% at today’s MPC meeting, from 7.25% to 7.00%. The Committee’s decision to cut rates was unanimous.

Tariffs and transition: Geopolitical uncertainty and financial markets

When we talk about geopolitics, we often default to the geopolitics of war and physical conflict. However, geopolitics centres on foreign relations and economic security, from which war ensues. The most significant impact on the global economy and financial markets in 2025, so far, has been Trump’s trade tariffs and the fears of a full-blown trade war. The escalation in trade tariffs by the US culminated in the Liberation-Day tariff announcement on 2 April, where even the penguins of Heard Island had to prognosticate on the implications of a 10% reciprocal tariff. Since then, we have had an environment of TOTO – tariffs on, tariffs off – with various pauses and extensions. These are meant to come to an end on 1 August 2025, yet we still cannot be certain.

Why A 3% Inflation Target Won’t Solve South Africa’s Debt Issues

The campaign to adjust the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) inflation target at the bottom end of the 3 – 6% band is gathering political momentum.