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Reserve Bank's next interest rate decision on a knife edge

15 July 2014 | General

The result of the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting later this month is very much in the balance.

Uptick in economy not yet reason to rejoice – BankservAfrica Economic Transaction Index

10 July 2014 | General

Although South Africa seems to have avoided a technical recession, the growth spurts on the economic radar are sporadic and not yet enough to lift the country out of the economic stagnation that has been with us for a couple of years now. This is according to the latest BankservAfrica Economic Transaction Index (BETI).

South Africa running out of steam

02 July 2014 | General

The South African recovery, according to the SA Reserve Bank (SARB), started in August 2009. South Africa’s economy usually lags the global cycle by a few months. The local economy initially bounced back quickly, led by consumer spending, a strengthening rand and a recovery in commodity prices. After a 1.5% contraction in 2009, annual GDP growth rose to 3.1% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011. Growth then slowed to 2.5% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013. The economic recovery was also helped by very accommodative fiscal policy as the government ran large budget deficits to increase spending and hire around 250 000 more employees. However, the government is now trying to slow its spending growth to below 2% per year in real terms and close the budget deficit. Failing to do so could result in another downgrade of our credit rating.

A tale of two recoveries – slow and steady in the US

02 July 2014 | General

Last week, US first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised downward from -1% to -2.9%. This disappointing number, mostly due to the bad weather and weaker consumer spending, obscured the fact that the American economy’s ‘Great Recession’ ended five years ago in June 2009. The 18-month long recession was the longest and deepest contraction in economic activity since the 43-month long first leg of the Great Depression (1929 to 1933).

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