2014 National Budget: fiscal consolidation could be further delayed
Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, is scheduled to table the country’s 2014 National Budget to Parliament on 26 February 2013. Given that downside risks to economic growth projections have escalated recently, we expect National Treasury to scale back on their growth forecasts, thus threatening a delay in reigning in the budget deficit to a more palatable 3.0% by the end of FY16/17. This may raise the risk of a further deterioration in government debt metrics and thus prevents us from ruling out the potential for further negative rating action.