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GDP numbers “better-than-expected”, but a depression may be looming

30 June 2020

The market expected the economy to shrink by 3.8% over the first quarter so the -2.0% print for Q1 2020 GDP (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised) might be slightly better than anticipated, but it almost means nothing. This performance takes us only up to the end of March so it includes less than five working days of the lockdown.

GDP in the first quarter of 2020

30 June 2020

The South African economy endured its third consecutive quarter of output contraction, with GDP growth of -2.0% during the first quarter. Though this is a poor outcome, it is somewhat better than expected, with economists having anticipated closer to -4.0% quarter-on-quarter.

South Africa is standing at the edge of a fiscal precipice

30 June 2020

The South African government will have to take decisive action if it hopes to avert a fiscal meltdown over the next five to 10 years. Kevin Lings, chief economist at Stanlib, said that urgent intervention was needed to avoid the worst case debt-to-GDP pathway set out in finance minister Tito Mboweni’s 24 June 2020 supplementary budget. “If government carries on as usual and the economy continues to struggle, then debt will ramp up to a forecast 140% of GDP by 2028/9,” he said. “We are heading towards a fiscal crisis that ends with a debt default, an IMF bailout, or an extensive prescribed asset scenario”. Lings was commenting during a Liberty Budget Commentary panel discussion, hosted by Bruce Whitfield, held 29 June 2020.

The road map to the revival of the economy – the 2020 supplementary budget

26 June 2020

The 2020 supplementary budget comes at a time when the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is causing widespread disruption in the world’s economy and continues to affect it negatively.

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Beyond the supplementary budget: how the South African government will respond to its worsening economic and fiscal position

26 June 2020

No shelter from the storm for middle class in Mboweni’s budget

26 June 2020

South African Institute of Black Property Practitioners Response to Supplementary Budget

25 June 2020

Supplementary Budget 2020: What was not said

25 June 2020

Supplementary Budget: Untenable fiscal position prompts a bold announcement

25 June 2020

We are in fiscal crisis

25 June 2020

Disappointing emergency budget lacks new policy announcements to accelerate growth and thus enhance the ability for faster fiscal consolidation

25 June 2020

Supplementary Budget Review & Inflation sinks to 3% in April 2020 under lockdown

25 June 2020

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Economy / General

GDP numbers “better-than-expected”, but a depression may be looming

GDP in the first quarter of 2020

South Africa is standing at the edge of a fiscal precipice

The road map to the revival of the economy – the 2020 supplementary budget

Beyond the supplementary budget: how the South African government will respond to its worsening economic and fiscal position

No shelter from the storm for middle class in Mboweni’s budget

South African Institute of Black Property Practitioners Response to Supplementary Budget

Supplementary Budget 2020: What was not said

Supplementary Budget: Untenable fiscal position prompts a bold announcement

We are in fiscal crisis

Disappointing emergency budget lacks new policy announcements to accelerate growth and thus enhance the ability for faster fiscal consolidation

Supplementary Budget Review & Inflation sinks to 3% in April 2020 under lockdown