Will the Arab Spring tear through South Africa?
The Arab Spring (or Arabic Rebellion) is a phenomenon that emerged in the Arabic world as early as 18 December 2010. Website wikipedia.org describes the movement as “a revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests” intended to topple undemocratic rule
At a recent BoE Private Clients presentation, Political & Trend Analysts JP Landman unpacked the conditions necessary for an Arab Spring, with the intention of answering the question: Is an Arab Spring-type uprising likely to take place in South Africa? His analysis begins with a shortlist of the five characteristics common to all Arab Spring countries, including middle-income nation, a youth bulge, high poverty, high inequality and limited political and civil rights. South Africa exhibits four of the five traits. We are a middle-income economy with high levels of poverty and inequality. And our population demographics loosely fit the “youth bulge” definition too, with some 28% of our citizens aged between 15 and 29 years. (The strict definition requires that between 30% and 32% of a population is in this age band, but Landman believes 28% is close enough). Our saving grace is that South Africa does not satisfy the “limited political and civil rights” condition!
An “all or nothing” outcome
“If we meet four out of five characteristics, do we stand a stronger chance of suffering an Arab Spring?” asked Landman. As the presentation progressed it was clear that for an Arab Spring event to occur, each of the five “conditions” must be present. Concerns over a popular uprising fizzle out when we explore South Africa’s “political and civil rights” landscape. The first and most important point is that we have an open society and open economy, which are both extremely helpful in defusing or preventing civil disturbances. “Whatever you say of South Africa it has a vibrant judicial system, a vibrant civil society and a vibrant media sector,” said Landman. “We are a society that is open and aggressive in articulating our viewpoints!” There is no need to resort to violence when there are sufficient, safe and accessible platforms to vent opinion.
A second protection against an Arab Spring-type uprising is the trust most ordinary citizens have in government’s ability to fulfil their needs. Revolution is predicted by the “chattering” classes, opined Landman, and the views and opinions of these “connected” individuals do not always align with those of the larger population. For a more complete picture of the ordinary citizen’s state of mind we can turn to credible opinion polls. The Institute for Justice and Reconciliation reveals that 66% of its national survey respondents trust national government… And although the number drops to the mid-40s for local government, these ratings are high compared to Western satisfaction polls. “Anybody who is up for re-election in a Western democracy would give their limbs for approval ratings at these levels,” said Landman.
Ipsos Markinor conducts a biannual omnibus survey that confirms confidence in government and its institutions at 56% currently. Although this is a slight decline from the 65% recorded in the first half of 2011 the number does not point to a population that is about to rise up and throw the government out of the Union Buildings! A third survey by DNS shows that between 60% and 70% of South Africans have confidence in the country’s future, going back as far as 2004. This survey further reveals that 76% of African (black) respondents are confident versus just 56% of African (whites). Landman said that a popular revolution was unlikely to be drive by the white segment of the population – and that an Arab Spring-event was even less likely due to the higher confidence score among black respondent.
The power of incrementalism...
Ironically, the third and final protection against a South African popular uprising vests in the popularity of the ruling African National Congress (ANC). “We expect the source of stability will shift from a one party dominant state to a state where there is much more democratic contestation over time,” said Landman. “But for now the strongest single reason why we will not have an Arab Spring is the cohesiveness of the ANC.” For this and the other reasons already covered, our leaders are fairly safe from an Egypt-style shock!
The strongest force in the investment world is compound income. In the social and political world the compound interest equivalent is something Landman calls incrementalism. His theory is based on a “struggle through” scenario wherein South Africa grows by around 3% each year. Each year – through small incremental changes in real GDP – we have R100 billion more to invest in our social services and capital infrastructure. The bottom line is that growth will happen incrementally! “Right now there are more serious issues in both politics and investment than the issue of an Arab Spring,” concluded Landman.
Editor’s thoughts: Landman’s response to the “Arab Spring or not” conundrum reads a bit like a “reasons to be thankful” piece! South Africa has many problems, but for now our constitutional democracy ensures the social and economic openness we need to prosper. Would you agree that an Arab Spring-type uprising is unlikely in 21st Century South Africa? Please add your comment below, or send it to gareth@fanews.co.za
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