Five days have passed since millions of Zimbabweans cast their vote in that country’s 2008 election. In those five days the Zimbabwean Electoral Committee (ZEC) has only released a fraction of the poll results. The ZEC’s failure to give a reason for the s
Each announcement of a parliamentary seat victory for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) was immediately countered with a Zanu-PF victory. This process continued until all the constituencies were released. And at the end of the parliamentary vote count the MDC emerged with a narrow lead, securing 109 seats against Zanu-PF’s 97. The remaining seats went to other contenders.
No sign of senate or presidential election results
Zimbabwe’s 29 March election was a complicated affair. Voters had to indicate their choice for parliamentary, senate and presidential candidate. So far only one set of results is known. The real power in Zimbabwe lies in the presidential position with the senate often referred to as a ‘toothless’ body. But until the results for these two elections are made known it is impossible to say with certainty that Mugabe has lost his seat of power. In addition the presidential candidate has to emerge with more than 50% of the vote to avoid a presidential run-off.
As we write Mugabe’s Zanu-PF is readying itself for a run-off vote. That they are doing this before the election results have been released confirms that Mugabe may have been forewarned of the presidential election results. Zimbabwe’s electoral law requires this run-off to happen within 21-days of the results. But analysts now fear that Mugabe could use his presidential power to pass a decree which would stall the run-off election between him and Morgan Tsvangirai (leader of the MDC) in the event one of them doesn’t receive the required majority.
And that’s another example of how the slow results are causing confusion. Before we even know if the run-off vote is a certainty people are speculating that Mugabe will do something to stall it (or steal it). The truth is that Tsvangirai could emerge as Zimbabwe’s next president without going to a run-off vote if he secures a big enough lead. The MDC believes he has obtained the 50 percent needed to avoid a run-off.
Observer missions have failed dismally
Whatever the eventual outcome it is clear the ‘independent’ observer missions in Zimbabwe have again failed in their task. Mugabe banned observer missions from various Western nations because he was unhappy with their conclusions during the country’s previous round of voting. He simply won’t tolerate any criticism of his version of a ‘free and fair’ election.
Instead he invited observers from country’s sympathetic to his regime. And his selective monitoring strategy has paid handsome dividends. Observer missions from the AU, SADC and Pan African Parliament seem unconcerned with the blatant abuses that occurred prior to the elections. They made light of statements by Zimbabwe’s military commanders that no leader other than Mugabe would be tolerated… And they accepted without protest the presence of police and security forces to ‘assist’ the aged, infirm and illiterate in casting their ballots. Nothing was said about the many voting roll irregularities either. These organisations simply rubber stamped the results as they were expected to do. After all, their approval was the price of their invitation.
It will be a great victory for African democracy if the peoples’ will prevails in Zimbabwe. And it will be a testament to their determination if the final results are accepted without the bloodshed and violence that followed recent Kenyan polls.
Editor’s thoughts:
We hope the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission gets round to releasing the results of Zimbabwe’s presidential elections soon. It will put an end to all the speculation and confusion doing the rounds. Do you think Mugabe will remain in Zimbabwe if he loses? Add your comments below, or send them to gareth@fanews.co.za
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