French writer predicted SA’s current economic malaise a whopping 173 years ago
There is something melancholic about listening to economic and political analysts juxtaposing your country’s myriad socioeconomic failings with their well-intentioned, but often-distorted, imaginings for the future. As an author and writer focused on the insurance and investment worlds, I frequently get to be a ‘fly on the wall’ in rooms full of intellectuals as they dip into South Africa’s ‘cauldron full of worries’ to dissect some or other par-boiled issue. No frogs here, people!
Who knew this was a French thing?
The tried and tested quote I haul out when commenting on such occasions is: “the more things change, the more they stay the same”. Now, had you asked me yesterday where this quote originated, I would have muttered something along the lines of “it is colloquial English; a common-sense phrase that sums up our shared, lived experiences”. And I would have sworn on some or other abstract I hold dear that the comment was “uh… definitely English”. Alas, how wrong Google proved me to be. Everybody’s favourite quote about change is credited to French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, around 1849.
Around 173 years ago, Karr wrote “plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose” which near enough translates to the quote in question. Why do I use this quote? Well, because each time I attend an economic or political discussion the experts trot out the same laundry list of concerns, regardless of the massive changes that have taken place since the previous discourse. Time and again, they put the same concerns under the microscope, assess and analyse them from every angle and propose similar solutions. And time and again, these solutions disappear into the ether without ever being implemented. This ‘discuss, then list your concerns, then propose a solution’ triangle plays out in a never-ending, automated rinse-and-repeat cycle.
Think Big, thanks to PSG
Earlier this week I attended, or watched, more accurately, a PSG-sponsored Think Big Series interview featuring Bonang Mohale, current Chancellor of the University of the Free State. Author and journalist Bruce Whitfield was tasked with extracting some sage advice from the Chancellor as to how South Africa Inc should respond to the social and economic challenges that dominated news headlines early in 2022. Whitfield pulled no punches, starting with a not-so-subtle reference to the political disruption that the governing African National Congress (ANC) would face as its leadership positioned for the upcoming ANC elective conference.
Mohale did not shy away from the politics, but we were more interested in his business insights. He offered up a number of how-to-fix-things lists during the 45-minute-long interchange, our favourite being his response to Whitfield’s “how do we fix the South African economy” prompt. “We do not need to do 25 things, nor do we need a lengthy laundry list,” responded the Chancellor. “There are 10 things that could keep government busy over an entire presidential term, and no more than five for the current financial year”. Five things? Now that is something a financial writer can sink his teeth into.
Five things to fix South Africa Inc
First. “We must address the notion of inclusive socioeconomic growth, because if the economy is not growing, you might as well pack up and go,” said Mohale. This writer assumed that the Chancellor meant that there can be no inclusive growth without first achieving growth, point; but we admit to interpreting the comment with a capitalist skew. That said, the need for above trend GDP growth is tossed out at every economic discussion we have ever attended… SA needs, I am told, to grow at 5% or better to make a meaningful dent in inequality, poverty and unemployment. Sadly, just a couple of days ago, an analyst at Nedbank commented that our beautiful country would struggle to meet the lowball target of 2% per annum in GDP growth over the foreseeable future.
The second sensible suggestion is for government, with help from the private sector, “to close the loop of state capture by catching and ensuring that every person implicated [in the Zondo Commission report] find themselves in orange overalls”. We spent a few moments pondering whether our President would make state capture arrests and prosecutions a priority in an ANC election year. Not likely. Besides, many of the damning allegations contained in the report have been in the public domain for years, if not decades, with barely a flutter of response from our still-ineffectual National Prosecuting Authority. Even apparently open-and-shut cases, such as that against ex-President Zuma, have been dragged through our criminal-friendly (sic) courts for decades.
Has omicron broken the virus’ stranglehold?
Number three on the list is for government to prioritise the vaccine rollout to enable the economy to fire on all cylinders; but in making this appeal, Mohale inadvertently shone the spotlight on another of the country’s serious shortcomings. The “vaccinate everyone for growth” approach made sense at the start of 2021; 12-months later, not so much. By the writer’s reckoning, the ongoing call for vaccinations and third and fourth booster shots will soon be obviated by the reality of tamer coronavirus variants and population immunity. “The only way we break the link between infections and deaths is through vaccinations,” opined Mohale. Really? Global stats already suggest that the evolution of the coronavirus, aka the more infectious but less deadly omicron variant, is breaking said link. PS. The writer is not a medical expert.
Youth unemployment featured as the fourth issue that government must tackle this year, though it is not a problem that can be solved in a mere 12-months. “When you have young people of military age sitting around and doing nothing, not only are you asking for trouble, but you are actively inviting it,” warned the Chancellor. Unfortunately, all of interventions proposed and undertaken over the past decade have done little to stem the tide… In fact, government has made things progressively worse by hampering growth as well as overpromising and underdelivering in many key areas. One of the biggest issues, briefly mentioned during the discussion, is that the public education system is producing terrible outcomes. Even so, spitting out thousands of run-of-the-mill Matric, BA or BCom graduates each year means nothing without economic growth.
On job opportunities and human rights
Finally, number five, government must “take seriously this notion of job creation” because jobs “give people a sense of self-respect and self-worth”. Mohale appealed to big business to view job creation as a way of “creating markets for the future”. It is a sensible request that must be weighed against the concerns we raised under point, spiced up with a word or two on entitlement. Our politicians have, over decades, imparted on us the belief that we are owed a job, a house, and a long list of other social benefits… And that means millions of us are sitting around waiting for these items to magically appear.
Whitfield offered an example of the distorted mainstream thinking that now afflicts us: “Youth unemployment is not just unkind, it is not just unfair, it is actually a human rights abuse … we are universally guilty of imposing desperate circumstances on young people in an environment where growth is a choice,” he said. What? The only way I could agree with his quote was to strip away everything but the last four words, because the statement “growth is a choice” is something that is relevant in the current context. Growth is a choice, and the only way that South Africa will achieve the meaningful growth needed to reverse our current abject trajectory is for government to create an environment where regulatory certainty and policy stability prevail.
Dreams for 2022
Mohale concluded the fast-paced economic and political discussion with his vision for 12-months hence. His wish: that all stakeholders step up to the plate to arrest the country’s social decline; that state capture “thieves” be held to account; that the country benefit from an influx of foreign direct investment; and that the President realises that his role is about leadership, not consensus and populism. Will this vision materialise? Alas, the more things change, the worse things get, and the more businesses and citizens beg government to deliver a secure, growth-focused environment, the more things stay the same. Until next time, “au revoir, chers lecteurs”.
