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Both horses should be scratched

30 November 2007 Gareth Stokes

In December the African National Congress (ANC) will gather in Polokwane, Limpopo for the organisations 52nd Annual Conference. High on the agenda is the election of new members to the six top positions in the party structure. And of course the appointmen

A two horse raise

ANC provincial branches completed the nomination process in the run up to the December convention during the course of last week. By Monday 28 November, the ANC Youth League and ANC Women’s League had added their votes to those of the nine provinces. If the votes counted thus far are any indication, party members are giving Mbeki the cold shoulder. Provincial structures cast 2, 270 votes for Zuma, with Mbeki receiving only 1, 396 votes.

Nobody was surprised that Zuma and Mbeki emerged as the main contenders in the ANC presidential election race. They have set the stage for a bizarre two horse race, on in which we contend both runners should be scratched. For those of you not familiar with horse racing parlance, a horse is scratched when its owner pulls it from the race before the gates drop. All bets are off! Our analysis might be harsh – but there are compelling reasons why each candidate is not a sensible choice.

A third term is one term too far

Mbeki is paying the price for his quest to secure a third term at the head of the party. There are suggestions that many party faithful are not happy with his desire to hang on to power. They have certainly used their votes to demonstrate this dissatisfaction. Once the votes were counted Mbeki only narrowly held on to areas he once considered as strongholds. He secured majority support in the Eastern Cape, North West, Western Cape and Limpopo.

Its wonderful to observe responses to the country’s continually changing political landscape. A while back the opposition party was worried that Mbeki would try to amend the constitution to allow him to run for a third term as the head of the country. Now various analysts are speculating that Mbeki wants to continue as head of the ANC in order to exert influence the next president of South Africa.

These postulations are now largely irrelevant – because Zuma looks certain to win the ANC presidency – and that makes him the likely leader of South Africa for four years starting 2009. The good news is it appears that ANC members are against their leaders holding office for too long.

And Zuma could start his leadership term in jail

The argument for pulling Zuma from the race is even more compelling. There is no question that he enjoys popular support – but it would be ridiculous to have the leader of the country’s ruling political party embroiled in lengthy court battles through his term of office. While we understand the concept “innocent until proven guilty” we believe the weight of unanswered allegations against him make Zuma a wholly inappropriate candidate. It would be better for him to step down from the race this time round, clear his name, and then use his massive popularity to whitewash the opposition in 2013.

Zuma’s overwhelming support raises a number of questions. How can a leader who has been in and out of trouble as much as Zuma still command the huge support he does? If elected, the country is surely facing a moral dilemma of epic proportions. Yet few ANC supporters appear to notice or care. Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka came close when she apparently admonished the ANC Women’s League for supporting Zuma. “We’ve worked so hard to get to where we are as women of South Africa and women of the world, and we just cannot allow a situation where we slip back,” she said, possibly suggesting the league should have put forward a female candidate.

Archbishop Desmond Tutu has also been making some noises. He told the Sowetan that “The ANC must not elect someone who the country will be ashamed of.” We only wish people of his calibre were prepared to voice their concerns more directly. If you have a voice in this country you should use it!

A power vacuum

Leadership issues aside, the real concern raised by the ANC nomination process is the apparent power vacuum were Zuma and Mbeki to step down. The main contenders are so far in front that the oft mentioned ‘third way’ is lost in their dust. So businessman Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa can return their attentions to their massive business empires for now. We cannot envisage either of these gentlemen having the time to serve as leader of the ANC and to adequately apply their minds for the benefit of their shareholders.

Editor’s thoughts:
The writing is on the wall. It looks highly likely that Zuma will emerge as the leader of the ANC. And the step up to South African president is a small one. What would you like to see happen at the ANC conference in Polokwane? Post your comments below, or send an email to gareth@fanews.co.za

Comments

Added by Sledgehammer , 05 Dec 2007
Interesting read indeed, Gareth. But you are missing the point completely and understandably so. South Africans, mostly of middle class status, both black and white are obviously horrified at the prospects of a Zuma presidency. The question is: what led to this revolt from the masses? Just a couple of issues to remind all and sundry that it is not yet uhuru (freedom in Swahili) in our country, at least for millions of South Africans who are still unemployed and living in conditions of squalor, 13 years into our nascent democracy. It could be argued that whilst the Mandela presidency gave us the promise of a rainbow nation, Mbeki's gave us economic growth, international acclaim but very little hope for a better life for the most vulnerable - the poor of the poorest. And this is exactly the problem. Therefore to many poor South Africans, JZ embodies their dreams and aspirations for a better. His humility, poor education and lack of sophistication resonates with them, regardless of his many flaws (rape trial, impending corruption charges) to them - he is their hero. To many fellow comrades within the ANC, he is their hope against the cold hearted Mbeki who threw them out in the cold when they expressed views perceived to be contrary to that of the president and his sidekicks. And they believe that this is the man with the ability and track record of bringing peace amongst warring factions (read examples, KZN, Burundi and others). I don't have all the answers and I am not a sangoma to predict the outcome in Limpopo but I am hoping for a Zuma victory. Let's face it, an unstable ANC will lead to an unstable country - and we don't need that. If Zuma wins and unites the ANC, the better for the country.
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