Wishing for the deluge

Jonathan Faurie, FAnews Journalist

South Africa is in the grips of one of the worst droughts ever experienced with some of the lowest recorded rainfall in the country’s history. We have written articles before explaining the severity of the situation and the need for cooler temperatures and wetter weather to form on the horizon. These are the foremost concerns on the minds of farmers and insurers who are currently seeing the true value of agricultural insurance products.

currently seeing the true value of agricultural insurance products.    

Where are we now?

In an effort to increase information to the public, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) recently held a press briefing where it discussed the topic.

Mnikeli Ndabambi, GM Operations, highlighted the severity of the situation by pointing to the fact that the SAWS has history dating back over 150 years which it uses to formulate its predictive models.

“We all know what happened during the summer of 2015, we saw record temperatures in certain places and we saw the driest summer season since 1921. Temperatures in northern Gauteng pushed 40°C while certain parts of the Northern Cape pushed 50°C,” said Ndabambi.

The majority of South Africa’s rainfall originates from the Indian Ocean, brought to the tropics of the continent by easterly trade winds from where it flows to the eastern parts of South Africa. However, this relies on a band of cooler air to exist within the Pacific Ocean off the coast of western South America. This however, has not been the case as a band of warm air has persisted in this region.

On the whole, temperatures have increased by four degrees over the past decade and will increase by a further six degrees over the remainder of the century. This means that the case for increased evaporation can be made. Ndabambi pointed out that the water levels within South Africa’s dams are decreasing rapidly with the Vaal Dam only 45% full.

The challenges we face

“Climate change affects rainfall, temperature and water availability more especially for agriculture and vulnerable communities. Weather and climate are critical for agriculture in risk assessment and agricultural production management systems such as crop planning and irrigation scheduling,” said Ndabambi.

Degradation of arable soils and loss of fertility due to high exposure to climatic stress and human pressure on forests and other vegetation under a changing climate will lead to a 50% drop in agricultural production in Africa by 2030.

There is also an economic effect as the persistent drought raises food prices.

Where do we go from here?

To the business end of it all; can we expect another dry season? SAWS scientist, Dr Asmerom Beraki, says we could have some respite this year.

“Most models suggest near the borderline of neutral and a weak La Niña is most likely. Conditions over the Indian Ocean may not be conducive for rainfall activities during spring and should closely be monitored. Most climate models indicate the prospect of above normal rainfall conditions toward early summer but with a marginal confidence. The 2015/16 drought is still persisting over most parts of South Africa and the recovery may be slow. More reliable information may be unfolded as we get closer to the mid-summer (2016/17),” said Dr Beraki.

This is largely much ado about nothing with sweeping statements giving a measure of hope with an equal measure of caution. However, when pressed, Dr Beraki did allude to the fact that most global models predict a tendency of above-normal rainfall conditions with marginal confidence.

What do we need?

We need rain. There is no doubt that South African farmers need the drought to disappear as a matter of urgency so that crop production can return to normal.

However, the rising temperatures pose a problem. Ndabambi warns that if we want the drought, and the effects thereof, to disappear, we will need significant rainfall. As it stands, rain that is not significant could evaporate before it has a chance to fill the dam levels.

Editor’s Thoughts:
Even if we do receive the significant rains that we want, there is no doubt that it is business unusual. Farmers, insurers and brokers cannot go about business in the same manner that they did in the past. New models and coping mechanisms need to be found. Please comment below, interact with us on Twitter at @fanews_online or email me your thoughts jonathan@fanews.co.za.