Why Bafana Bafana v Mexico felt a bit like watching government
I struggled with today’s op-ed topic, and later the title, until an idea began taking shape. A couple of days back, I attended one of those cup-half-full sessions where presenter after presenter listed how broken the country was, and then insisted that the green shoots of some over-mentioned government project would make it all better. And then, last night, for the first time in four years or so, I watched a football game.
Bafana Bafana v government
The cup-half-full crowd and most football fanatics are not going to enjoy the following observations. But watching Bafana Bafana’s performance against Mexico in their opening game of the 2026 FIFA World Cup offers such a great proxy for South Africa that I could not resist. I did not see heart or discipline in this game. For reasons lost on this soccer noob, the players were obsessed with playing back towards their own goal and fiddling around with silly goalie-to-defender passes in the goal box. I must have muttered “what are you doing” about 23 times.
Our government is a bit like an expanded Bafana Bafana playing for South Africa against the world. They field a befuddling starting line-up of 32 ministers and 43 deputy ministers; but just like their football counterparts, the first question they ask when they receive a call-up is: “What is in it for me?” Both are among the best paid in their peer groups, and also rank among the worst performers. Apologies for the liberal generalisation, dear reader, but how else do you explain two red cards or a country’s slide from 0.54% of global GDP in 1994 to around 0.37% in 2024? Over the same period, our share of Africa’s combined GDP has halved, from about 28% to 14%.
“If you look at some of the economic data and the big macro factors for our country over the last 20 years or so, you begin to understand why we have such a weak economy,” said political economy analyst, Daniel Silke, during a presentation to the ICB Annual Conference 2026. Despite its abundant human and mineral resources, South Africa barely managed 0.7% per annum average GDP growth between 2014 and 2024, and the numbers for 2025 and 2026 look equally disappointing. To be fair, Silke was less cup-half-full than my opening suggests.
Macro factors for discontent
Low GDP growth, an expanding population and high unemployment, especially among the youth, is a recipe for discontent. In the context of annual population growth exceeding GDP growth, South Africans are becoming poorer over time. Using the World Bank’s GNI per capita, Atlas method, the country has yet to return to its 2007 level, before the GFC. Sadly, the going-in-the-wrong-direction phenomenon shows up across the stats spectrum, whether for crime and corruption, infrastructure investment, job creation or manufacturing output.
Sadder still, our firsts are typically for ‘best worst’. As an example, a survey from the International Monetary Fund places South Africa among the least competition-friendly countries for market regulations. This is one of a myriad reasons why foreign firms are reluctant to commit cash to local opportunities. At the same time, salaries dominate government expenditure budgets, leaving little for investment or maintenance. Silke listed fixed capital investment, political appointments and weak local governance as contributors to the country’s multi-decade infrastructure decline.
As the cup-half-full crowd celebrate electricity and transport ‘wins’ under Operation Vulindlela, government’s longer-term report card is awash with sub-35% grades. The National Development Plan (NDP) set a 5.4% per annum GDP growth target versus the 1.1% we may see in 2026; it calls for unemployment to fall to 6% compared to the current 30% and higher. To make matters worse, the upbeat macro factors that emerged as tailwinds for South Africa Inc during the final quarter of 2025 have now been overtaken by geopolitics.
That infernal Middle East conflict
Military action taken by the United States and Israel against Iran from 28 February 2026 has spiralled into regional instability and a months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz. You and I are feeling the impact at the fuel pump, with diesel and petrol prices up significantly year-to-date to 12 June 2026. “I need not remind you of the impact these price hikes have had on our inflation … or the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decisions,” Silke said. For the record, the April 2026 CPI ‘print’ came in at 4.0%, and the repo rate was hiked by 25 basis points to 7%.
The analyst warned the audience that food price inflation would filter into the economy over the course of the next quarter or so, even if the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved. “Food is a huge component of developing countries’ disposable income on a monthly basis; when food prices go up, it introduces elements of instability,” he said. Those hoping for continued rand strength against the US dollar as an ongoing foil against inflation will be sorely disappointed too, as the dollar finds support from oil-based export revenues. So, for the foreseeable future, we face a cup-half-empty storm of lower GDP growth, higher interest rates and worsening unemployment.
Turning to the November 2026 local government elections, Silke suggested that government’s current focus on immigration, illegal or otherwise, was a form of political blame-shifting. “This is going to be a political factor as we move into local government elections ... and when it comes to local government elections, the rhetoric gets that bit more heated,” he said. One of the major disconnects highlighted through this presentation was government’s assessment of its progress, measured in a largely ‘green’ Operation Vulindlela dashboard, versus the on-the-ground experiences of thousands of ordinary South Africans.
Tell us what you want…
The Afrobarometer Round 10 survey in South Africa 2025, compiled by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, asked citizens what they felt was the single most important issue government should address. The top five came in as unemployment; crime and security; water supply; infrastructure and roads; and corruption. This survey shows what people perceive, whereas government’s dashboard is little more than a project management tracker. Government reckons it is doing a great job, as I am sure Bafana Bafana thought after their Mexico game; but voters and supporters see things differently.
Playing devil’s advocate, one wonders whether the African National Congress (ANC) is heading into the upcoming elections with the same mindset as the country’s national footballers, something along the lines of “just by showing up, we have a shot at winning this thing.” PS, my opinion, not the presenter’s. The latest political polling, with the usual caveat about how unpredictable these polls are, show the ANC at close to 40% countrywide, with the DA somewhere in the 25-28%. Silke warned that the DA’s support range looked a trifle optimistic.
However, the results at the local municipality level are anyone’s guess, with over 500 parties on the ballots promising all manner of surprise outcomes. “At a local government level, the smaller parties will have an impact,” Silke said. These parties are expected to snap up a growing share of the total vote count, contributing to the now-expected post-election dealmaking, with the minnows trading votes for influence and power. The problem for the official opposition is that winning the most votes in a city or town, at, say, 40%, can be undone by the party in position two plus a handful of also-rans.
The leadership race that matters
Another issue that will influence South Africa’s win-loss ratio emerges from the ANC leadership race, which comes to a head at the ANC’s next conference in late 2027. The question is whether the next ANC president is Paul Mashatile, Fikile Mbalula, Patrice Motsepe or somebody totally unexpected.
“The next ANC leadership election will determine the fate of the Government of National Unity (GNU),” Silke said, because the winner will either realign with current GNU partners, or seek “to reunite the liberation family that has splintered over the last decade or so.” And that brings me full circle, back to our cup-half-full obsession.
South Africans are tired of being told that things are working because a ‘big-picture’ project dashboard has turned green, or that their favourite sports team deserves kudos for just showing up. At some point, we deserve tangible evidence of forward momentum in jobs, safe streets, working taps, decent roads and less corruption, to name a few. Until such time, South Africa Inc, like Bafana Bafana, looks less like a team chasing a win than one trying not to concede.
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