Reimagining South Africa as a power broker in a multipolar world
There could be some big shifts in the South African political landscape in the coming years, and not all for the better. As I contemplated today’s op-ed, some of the YouTube channels I frequent had begun warning of a further erosion in African National Party (ANC) support in the 2026 local government elections, potentially testing the Government of National Unity (GNU) arrangement.
A multipolar world
To find out more about the country’s prospects I attended a fascinating economic and political discussion hosted by Michael Summerton, Divisional Director: Proposition & Marketing at INN8, and featuring political commentator Dr Frans Cronje. The discussion started with a detailed explainer of the global backdrop within which South African politicians will have to frame the country’s future. Notably, the shift from a unipolar world dominated by the United States (US) to a multipolar world with various countries vying for prominence.
“We have not witnessed the ultimate triumph of the Western liberal order; alternative systems of government and approaches to how the world should be governed have risen,” Cronje said, framing global political power over the three decades since South Africa’s first democratic elections. He also took a stab at explaining US President Donald Trump’s approach to policymaking, saying that the current administration understood “the need to bring hard power forward in diplomacy … in order to pursue strategic interests.”
Pinky and the Brain acolytes who want to live up to the “take over the world” mantra should note the following global domination gem. The commentator singled out control of logistics choke points as the best way to exert power in a multipolar world. “If you can command the choke points, you command the flow of force, influence and commerce globally,” Cronje said. These are areas where commercial or military traffic is squeezed into narrow bands; think Suez Canal. As luck has it, the Cape of Good Hope shipping route has choke point potential.
Tariffs to fuel US inflation?
Summerton asked how Trump’s trade tariff obsession might be interpreted in the multipolar world context. “Tariffs were picked because they offer the prospect of leverage, allowing you to bring force forward in your diplomatic relations very quickly,” Cronje said. Countries have to view the proposed tariffs as an opening ‘play’ in bilateral negotiations and respond accordingly. The tariff-or-bust approach will anyway fade as American voters face the inevitable inflation spill-over, compelling the administration to change course.
South Africa’s political decision makers will have to ‘box clever’ to extract maximum benefit in the multipolar world. To do so, they need to acknowledge Simon’s Town’s strategic positioning along the Cape of Good Hope shipping lane. Admitting his argument was extreme, the commentator singled out the open seas bordering this small coastal town as one of three choke points for the Indo Pacific. The others are the Bab El-Mandab Strait and the Solomon Islands.
“If you command all three points, you control the Indo Pacific,” Cronje said. “And dominance in the Indo Pacific will be extremely important in determining the balance of power between the West and China over the next 20 to 30 years.” He contended that South Africa’s strategic position was one of its most valuable assets and encouraged the country to leverage its real estate to attract investment and concessions from Washington and Beijing.
The Holy Grail is to lift the country’s paltry 15% fixed capital formation as a share of GDP to 25% or higher, an achievement that will help GDP north of 4%.
The trouble with multi-party diplomacy
Why then, pondered Summerton, does it look like South Africa’s diplomacy efforts and policymaking are transmitting on multiple wavelengths? It turns out the country is at a significant political inflection point, moving from 400 years of single party rule, democratic or not, to a multi-party GNU in April 2024. Cronje documented the performance-linked ebbs and flows in ANC support going back to 1994, and commended South African voters as centrist, pragmatic and wholly sensible. “Our democracy works to change the country peacefully,” Cronje said.
Some noteworthy points to emerge here include that the ANC knew they were in for a hiding in the 2024 National Election; that they resisted the temptation to print money to create inflation and desperate poverty to stay in power; and further, that they declined partnership with the more radical EFF and MK parties in the post-election GNU formation. “Fiscal prudence remained, and then the ANC went and did a deal with Helen Zille and the DA, out of their free will and free choice,” he said. Mind you, one still wonders how the ruling party tricked all comers, turning less than 40% of the national vote into around two thirds of the positions in an expanded Cabinet.
Cronje suggested that the GNU is relatively safe provided it improves the material circumstances of voters, with promising signs coming from Eskom. “We have got a young democratic government that needs to get the growth rate up, and it needs electricity to do that,” he said, before calling for a somewhat more ‘just’ energy transition than is currently proposed by government. If the trade-off is between burning fossil fuels and reducing unemployment, then “the correct choice is to burn the coal in order to reduce the 20 million or so job seekers.”
Should they stay or should the go now?
Ah, the GNU. “Should [they] stay, or should [they] go now? If [they] go there will be trouble. And if [they] stay it will be double.” With apologies to The Clash. But Cronje reckons there is strong support among both ANC and DA voters for the structure to continue. “If you were to be the one that triggers the breakup of the GNU, you will pay a heavy political price,” he warned.
There are some interesting shifts in voter dynamics, with the commentator suggesting that DA voters were mainly second generation, middle class, suburban voters whereas the ANC still got a big chunk of its support from traditional rural communities. He warned that either party was dead in the water if it failed to expand its supporter base beyond the present demographics. As an aside, the feasibility of the ANC and DA collaborating hinges on the realisation that voters in the middle class, established or emerging, hunger for the same policy outcomes.
On the 2024 National Election result, the GNU is pretty solid. However, there are big changes evident in voting patterns in recent municipal byelections that point to new and stronger power brokers emerging. Yes, there are chances that further slides in ANC support could push it towards an EFF or MK deal, but Cronje expects the electorate will punish such a move in 2029. He also branded the ruling party’s slide on the back of expropriation and the National Health Insurance (NHI) policies as proof that “populism burns you politically.”
Healthcare outcomes that benefit all
The commentator also credited some of the ruling party’s 2024 election slide to its expropriation and healthcare policies, saying this was proof that “populism burns you politically.”
Going forward, policymakers will hopefully rework the NHI solution to offer mandatory, low-fee insurance for employed people without dismantling the country’s world class private healthcare infrastructure. This, by the way, has been something your writer has long advocated for. And I have been particularly critical of how sensible low-cost interventions in the private medical scheme space have been stalled by the Council for Medical Schemes (CMS) who one could argue have prioritised Department of Health policy over their constituency for decades.
Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) regulations are in for a substantive review too, though it is too early to speculate on the outcomes from that process. “At the moment, the call on the cold facts of the thing is that a vastly important reform window is opening for the country,” Cronje said, calling on business and other interested parties to seize the initiative in empowerment, health and international trade. On an optimistic note, he said younger politicians were painfully aware of the need to set policy that improves fixed investment and growth.
At the time of writing, the politics headlines centred on the ANC National General Council being held at Boksburg, 8-12 December 2025 but rather than musing over potential party leadership changes, many were lamenting the party’s inability to pay its staffers on time. Cronje said it was highly probable that Cyril Ramaphosa would see out his term as leader of the ANC and identified Patrice Motsepe or Fikile Mbalula as potential successors, with Paul Mashatile as another strong contender.
Africa rising, still
Turning to economic prospects, Cronje reminded the audience that ‘Africa rising’ is not a slogan but a 40-year data series showing steady gains in governance, education, electricity generation, trade and urbanisation. The continent is emerging as a major consumer markets with geopolitical weight to match. And South Africa remains the safest and most practical gateway for global capital seeking exposure to that long-term growth story.
For investors and voters, the takeaway is that South Africa’s strategic relevance has not vanished. Cronje argued that with the right strategy, the country could benefit handsomely from its geographic position and institutional strengths.
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