Could South Africa have its ‘Turkish Spring’ moment?
The so-called ‘Arab Spring’ – the media’s handy packaging of uprisings that raged in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen towards the end of 2010 – forced a handful of dictators from power. But the protests in Turkey at the beginning of June couldn’t be quite
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is no Mubarak, no Gaddafi – he is a largely popular leader who came to power at the polls (he scooped almost half the nation’s vote in 2011) and who mostly runs the economy adroitly. In fact, Turkey’s economy is the fastest-growing in an anaemic Europe, per capita income having tripled under Erdogan’s management. So what are the protests about?
They began with a sit-in, a peaceful objection to the government’s intention to turn green and pleasant Gezi Park into yet another shopping mall. When the protestors were attacked by the police, anger spread.
Although Twitter activists mobilised in the spirit of the ‘Occupy’ movement, with the hashtag #OccupyGezi prominent, the issue was not about thieving bankers but about creeping authoritarianism. Erdogan has a tendency to crack down on his opponents and stifle dissent – in fact, Turkey has the highest number of journalists in prison. Little wonder that citizens feel their voices are not being heard.
Democracies can also stifle dissent
What this underlines is the fact that democracies, too, can reach boiling point. Democracy is not just about holding – and winning – elections (take note, Jacob Zuma). It is very much a process, not an end in itself.
Turkey’s protests should serve as a warning. First, a growing economy is no guarantee of a satisfied populace. Second, an elected leader with authoritarian tendencies – and a loyal police-force – is unlikely to gain the confidence of a nation’s citizens.
Turkey and South Africa are often compared to one another. Both are emerging markets with potential, but with significant downsides to their potential currently at the fore. Both have current account deficits of more than 6% of their GDP and both attracted significant inflows to their bond markets – though investors have cooled to both countries recently, which is a worry, as both require foreign direct investment (FDI) to reduce their deficits. But South Africa is unmistakeably sitting on a larger powder-keg than Turkey (Turkey’s unemployment rate is only 8.4%, for example).
Will South Africa follow suit?
Should South Africa worry about similar protests? In a word, yes.
Our economy is growing, but only marginally, and unemployed South Africans feel they are getting nowhere fast. The simmering tensions on BREAK the mines, post-Marikana, show that little has been resolved in terms of labour disputes – 2012 was the most protest-filled year in the country since the demise of apartheid, but we have yet to see what 2013’s strike season will bring. Metals prices continue to disappoint as the commodities super-cycle runs out of steam, which is going to lead to mines laying off workers or, at the very least, withholding pay-rises. In May, Impala Platinum said it could not afford to offer wage hikes during negotiations with trade unions.
Next year is an election year, and at least some of the political tensions that are beginning to emerge may unsettle a citizenry already worrying about inflation, unemployment or employment uncertainty and debt.
A small protest about a park has caused Turkey to rise up and protest – what would it take in South Africa?
Editor’s thoughts:
I was amused to see Syria issue a travel warning regarding Turkey, advising its citizens to refrain from travelling there due to the ‘deteriorating security situation’ – though as Turkey is harbouring about 370 000 Syrian refugees the Syrian’s government back-biting is to be expected. More worryingly, though, the Turkish stock market fell by 5% after the riots and the Turkish lira took a beating. If South Africa were to experience similar protests, what do you think the economic consequences would be? Comment below or email fiona@fanews.co.za.
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