South Africa's fuel network records 12 consecutive days of rising diesel stops ahead of what is expected to be the largest single-month price increase on record

Analysis of anonymised Tracker mobility data by Lightstone Retail shows diesel stop volumes above February levels every single day since 16 March, with the surge accelerating rather than abating as April approaches.

South Africa recorded the largest sustained surge in diesel stop volumes in recent years in the three weeks between 16 and 27 March, according to Lightstone Retail’s daily analysis of anonymised Tracker mobility data. Every major fuel chain; Astron Energy, BP, Engen, Sasol, Shell and Total Energies recorded elevated diesel stops against equivalent February days throughout the period. Lightstone Retail will continue monitoring and publishing data as the situation develops.

The trigger was the Iran conflict. By 18 March, three weeks of escalating war coverage, an initial March price increase, widespread analyst projections of R5 to R10 per litre hikes in April, and visible supply pressure at scattered forecourts had set the conditions for a market-wide commercial response.

The first wave: 19 and 20 March
Diesel stops across all major chains rose 7 to 10% above the prior week on Thursday 19th and Friday 20th. Petrol recorded a far more modest 2 to 5% lift over the same period. The divergence reflects a structural difference: commercial operators with bulk storage capacity moved decisively on the price signal. Private motorists, with no meaningful ability to store surplus fuel, did not.

Sasol and Total Energies led the percentage uplift in diesel at approximately 8.5%. Engen, the market’s highest-volume retailer by absolute stops, recorded the most modest percentage increase, consistent with its commercial customer base having filled earlier in the week Monday and Tuesday volumes at Engen sites were already elevated before the Thursday and Friday spike.

Between 60% and 90% of stations across all networks were busier than the same days in February. At stations where fuel was available, stop volumes ran 20 to 26% above equivalent February days.

The sustained build: 21 to 27 March
Volumes did not normalise after the initial spike. Diesel stops climbed again from Monday 23rd, reaching a new high of over 12% above February baseline on Friday 27th the highest single-day reading in the 12-day period. The daily data across all chains tells a consistent story:

• All six major chains recorded diesel stop increases of 10 to 20% in the final days of the period.
• Engen remains the highest-volume chain by absolute diesel stops. Shell has closed the gap materially in the final week.
• All six chains recorded their highest diesel volumes simultaneously on Friday 27th.
• Petrol tracked consistently below diesel throughout, with daily gains in the 1 to 8% range, reflecting the limited storage options available to private motorists.
• The combined market ran 3 to 8% above February baseline every day across the full 12-day period.

“In seven years of tracking fuel stop volumes across the national network, we have not recorded anything like what we are seeing right now. This is not a one-day event. It is a sustained, market-wide response that has been building since the onset of the Iran conflict and has not abated,” said Mohit Narotam, Managing Director of Lightstone Retail.

The road to April
April’s projected adjustment pushes petrol 95 and diesel toward the top of their two-year trading range. Petrol 95 and diesel have held in a relatively stable R18 to R25 band since January 2024. It is not the level that sets this adjustment apart but the speed of arrival in a single monthly move.

Lightstone Retail’s data shows a consistent behavioural pattern around monthly price adjustments: when increases are expected, Tuesday stop volumes surge as drivers fill up before Wednesday’s price change. With April’s adjustment expected to be the largest single-month increase on record, the Tuesday before 1 April is likely to produce the most pronounced pre-price spike this data has captured in seven years of tracking.

Despite the scale of the demand surge, total daily distances across the national vehicle parc have held flat between 390 and 430 million kilometres per day for two years through significant price movements. Higher prices change when South Africans fill up. They do not change how far they drive.

“The April shock lands on budgets, not kilometres. The fuel the national network needs to supply in April is essentially fixed. What will shift is when and where customers fill up — concentrated in the final days of March and the Tuesday before the price change,” said Tamaryn Shalom, Head of Product and Innovation at Lightstone Retail.