Commodity boom to boost South Africa’s economy
Momentum for the global economy has been varied moving into 2026. Coface expects growth of +2.6% this year – a very minor downtick on +2.8% in 2025 – despite an international environment marked by persistent geopolitical, financial and social risks.
In light of this, Coface has made seven country risk assessment changes (six upgrades) and nine sector rating changes (seven upgrades).
Key figures:
• +2.6%: projected global growth in 2026
• South Africa: growth projected at below 2%
• +4.3%: forecast growth in Africa in 2026
• +3.9%: growth in global trade in 2025
• +15%: increase in corporate insolvencies in the US in H2 2025
2025 displayed the resilience of globalisation
2025 lived up to expectations in that history went full throttle, driven simultaneously by turmoil and stabilising global growth, which was in line with our initial growth forecast of +2.8%. The paradoxical result can be explained by two main factors. The first is that the shock to the global economy was not a patch on the preceding uncertainty, particularly where tariffs were concerned. The second is the capacity of companies to adapt, particularly those with an international focus, confirming (if any such thing was needed) that globalisation continues to be a strong dynamic and one that is fuelled by powerful – and implacably interdependent – forces.
2026 begins under heavy pressure
2026 has started under a large cloud of uncertainty, often in the presence of overwhelming risks. Geopolitical risks have materialised, as current and recent events have shown in the Middle East, Latin America, and Greenland. Financial risks have emerged on the back of the debt and asset valuation levels of most assets in a sticky high-interest rate environment. Macroeconomic risks also abound with US economic policy vagaries and the ever present threat of further trade clashes, amid escalating international competition and weakening global cooperation. Social and political risk looms large in many countries, manifested by deep festering resentment in growing segments of the population, particularly in Europe. Not to mention, of course, pervasive and intensifying health and climate risks.
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