FANews
FANews
RELATED CATEGORIES
SUB CATEGORIESGeneral | 

Hardened US sanctions will affect Russia’s long-term growth prospects

01 September 2017Coface

On 2nd August 2017, US President Donald Trump signed a new bill into legislation - “The Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act”.

The bill not only extends, codifies and hardens existing sanctions, but introduces new ones against Russia as well as against Iran and North Korea.

The bill was approved with overwhelming bipartisan support in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Congress passed the bill in response to Russia’s interference in the 2016 US elections (through cyber intrusion and attacks), as well as against ongoing human rights violations in Russia and the crisis in Eastern Ukraine.

The combination of these circumstances, compounded by the criticism of President Trump and his son for their alleged complicity with Russian officials during the electoral campaign, left no alternative for the reluctant President Trump other than the hardening of sanctions.

The sanctions against Russian entities and individuals include financial sanctions (credit and investment restrictions), trade sanctions (export bans) and individual sanctions (visa revocation and denial, freezing of assets).

These sanctions apply to Russian entities and individuals active in several sectors, namely: defence, intelligence, oil, gas, banking and, to a lesser extent, railways, metals and mining – all of which are of critical importance for Russia’s economy.

Regardless of their economic sector, hardened US sanctions target Russian individuals and entities that:

1) Undermine US cybersecurity on behalf of the Russian government
2) Invest in Russia’s energy export pipelines
3) Conduct significant transactions with Russian defence and
intelligence agencies
4) Commit, or assist in, serious human rights abuse
5) Commit acts of significant corruption
6) Provide support to the Syrian government to acquire arms
7) Invest, or facilitate the investment of, USD10 million or more in the Russian government’s privatisation of any state-owned assets that could unfairly benefit government officials or their associates.

Sanctions must be applied by US individuals and entities and, unless waived by the President, by non-US individuals and entities (who otherwise face penalties for non-compliance). The US Executive is overseeing the implementation of the new Act.

Risks

The effects of these new US sanctions on Russia’s economy are expected to be minor in the short term. The recession experienced over the last two years was mainly due to the collapse in oil prices and counter-sanctions on agro food imports, rather than to the sanctions instigated by the US and Western Europe since 2014.

Russia’s economy has in fact managed to adjust to lower oil prices and the initial sanctions. The current rise in oil prices is leading to a growth revival with +2.5%.

reported in Q2 on an annual rate. The hardened sanctions are unlikely to throw this recovery off track, because oil and gas production should not be affected. The construction of the Nordstream 2 and Turkish Stream gas pipes are expected to go ahead, as the sanction threshold for Russian participation in an energy project was raised from 10% to 33%, due to EU lobbying.

Conversely, long–term growth prospects could be undermined due to constraints on foreign investment needed to expand, diversify and modernise Russia’s economy. Exports of US deep-water technology for Artic offshore and shale projects will be blocked. The law also shortens the duration of financing periods allowed for Russian energy companies to 60 days, and to 14 days for Russian banks.

Investments in the pipelines which are over 33% owned by Russian interests will be limited to USD5 million within a 12-month period. The resulting higher cost of capital will restrain investments, which will in turn impact productivity gains and economic growth.

Sanctions will probably remain in place for some time. The new Act is unusual in that it gives little power to the President to override or delay sanctions. Congress can review any presidential move to issue a waiver within 30 days of the executive branch informing lawmakers of its intention to employ it. As a result, the Trump administration cannot promise that any positive moves by Russia will be met by reciprocal actions. There will therefore be little incentive for Russia to change its behaviour.

In advance of the 2018 midterm elections, the Republicans could be tempted to further harden legislation to prove that they are taking a tough stance on Russia. The President could lose the discretion to penalise foreign companies constructing pipelines to transport Russian natural gas to Europe - or to apply sanctions against non-US entities involved with the Russian defence and intelligence sectors. This would reduce the space that Trump currently enjoys to negotiate with allied countries on the adoption of new sanctions.

Member countries of the European Economic Area, Switzerland, Canada and Australia are already applying sanctions and do not seem to be overly enthusiastic on adopting new ones but they could risk seeing their corporates affected by US extraterritorial sanctions. Moreover, the law requires the US Treasury to report early next year on the impact to be expected if it were to apply sanctions to Russian sovereign debt, of which 30.7% was held by non-residents as of 1 June 2017.

Quick Polls

QUESTION

The first phase of RDR is upon us. Is your practice ready to move from commissions based to fees based?

ANSWER

Yes. Its good practice, my clients deserve the best advice at an appropriate price.
No. I don’t think any practice will be 100% ready to become fee based.
AE fanews magazine
FAnews August 2017 EditionGet the latest issue of FAnews

This month's headlines

The art of storytelling
Bespoke cover: a new visit to the tailor
Distribution of assets on the death of a member
Climate change demands revised thinking
Paint risk based masterpieces
The uptown funk of smart payslips
Subscribe now