More on Fidentia after the elections
The big financial services sector story this week is the sentencing of Fidentia kingpin Steven Goodwin. Since being extradited from the United States he’s been hard at work in the back offices of the National Prosecuting Authority, carving out a deal to ensure the minimum possible stay in jail. And with a 10 year sentence we’d say he’s been fairly successful. With Goodwin and Gordon Maddock sentenced and serving time, it just remains for the other accused in the case, J Arthur Brown, to have his day in court. Goodwin is in the state’s corner, so the final prosecution will hopefully prove the proverbial ‘walk in the park.’ We’ll take a closer look at the latest developments in the Fidentia matter in Thursday’s newsletter.
Today we’re going to spend some time discussing the country’s fourth ‘free and fair’ elections which take place tomorrow, the 22 April 2009. We urge you to take a few minutes to exercise your democratic right to vote on Wednesday. If you’re uncertain of where to make your mark you can check at http://www.elections.org.za/ In the centre of the page, three blocks down, you’ll find a facility that allows you to enter your ID number and spits out your voting station. Of course you have to be registered already!
More than 26 parties to choose from
South Africa’s electoral system would probably knock the average Western voter for a six. Unlike the two choice ballots in the US (republican or democrat) and the UK (labour or conservative) South African voters will have to scan through almost thirty party names when making their cross. The Independent Electoral Commission’s (IEC) 2009 ballot specimen lists 26 organisations competing on a national level. When the last ballot is counted we’re sure most of these parties will emerge with only a fraction of one percent of the vote. But there will be a clear winner. The African National Congress (ANC) is set to secure another landslide victory.
In their latest opinion poll (conducted in March 2009) Markinor extracts a possible election outcome from face-to-face interviews conducted with 2 756 ‘likely’ voters. They say the ANC is in line for 64.7% of the vote, followed by the Democratic Alliance (10.8%), The Congress of the People (8.9%) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (2.7%). And there’s still a pool of 9.1% of respondents who are unsure of their decision. The good news is the ANC’s predicted majority has tapered off somewhat from almost 68% in a similar sample compiled in October 2008. The survey concludes the ANC will achieve majorities in eight of the countries provinces – with the DA grabbing the reins in the Western Cape. Whichever way one looks at the numbers it’s clear the majority of citizens favour the liberation movement for another five-year term.
The two thirds majority
Statistics aside the ANC is confident it will ounce again secure more than two thirds of the vote. This is the Parliamentary majority required to make changes to the country’s constitution and is of tremendous concern to oppositions parties. It’s hardly surprising that most pre-election debates have turned into an ‘us versus them’ (the rest versus the ANC) affair. In a sad reflection on the country’s electioneering processes we’ve been forced to watch as opposition leaders tell us why not to vote for the ANC instead of why we should be voting for them!
Writing in the Business Day, Mariam Isa observes that “it’s not who wins, but whether the ANC gets two-thirds of the vote that concerns investors.” Her view is confirmed by Razia Khan, Africa research head at Standard Chartered Bank in London, who says “investors may be slightly apprehensive if the ANC wins another two-thirds majority because of what it might suggest about the future direction of policy.” They suggest foreigners want to see some erosion of the ruling party’s power base and the establishment of a viable opposition.
But we’ll have to wait a few days to determine whether Cope, the breakaway from the ANC, will garner enough support to break the ANC stranglehold. As things stand it looks like Cope will lure members from a variety of smaller opposition parties as well as its ‘parent.’ And it’s quite possible the ANC will make up for any losses by enticing traditional IFP voters, who favour the movement’s Zulu leader, Jacob Zuma. Whatever the outcome, we urge you to make sure you have your say on the day!
Editor’s thoughts: As we get ready to participate in our fourth ‘free and fair’ elections we have a great deal to be thankful for. Unlike other African nations we’ve embraced the concept of democracy and political tolerance so completely that the rest of the world has no qualms about us hosting an international cricket tournament in the same week as our national poll. Is your vote a right or a duty? Add your comment below, or send it to [email protected]
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