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IPD/SAPOA Conference addresses global property dilemmas

08 July 2008 IPD/SAPOA Property Investment Conference

The 6th Annual IPD / SAPOA Property Investment Conference, scheduled to take place in Cape Town next month, has a reputation for never shying away from the tough property investment questions.

True to this year’s theme – Opportunity in Uncertainty – the conference promises to confront declining world-wide investment conditions and expose market realities by tapping into some of the savviest thinkers in the global property arena.

Keynote international speakers like IPD Head of Retail globally, Belinda Clur, and Tony Key, Professor of Real Estate Economics at the Cass Business School in the UK, will be weighing in on some of the year's thorny property investment questions.

"All current news reports point to the tightening noose around the neck of the consumer and developer being unlikely to loosen until late 2009, when analysts expect conditions to show initial signs of easing," Clur points out.

A significant signal for investors is that the Retail sector was the weakest sector in the IPD Global Property Index for 2007, which covers 22 national markets. Clur points to ebbing consumer confidence in the UK and US as key factors.

“Retail returned just 8.6% compared with 11.5% overall, in local currency terms” she reports.

Still, mainland European markets reported strong retail performance for the year, helped by a steady and secure currency.

“Global headlines and themes indicate that retail portfolio managers are currently facing pressure from a development, as well as an operational perspective, as retailers are going to have to work much harder to obtain their slice of the ever-shrinking consumer wallet”, says Clur.

Clur’s presentation at the conference will examine South Africa’s global retail positioning, and current retail trends. The results of this talk should provide some insight into whether retail is set to be an anchor in the current economic storm, and how research findings can be used in a tactical way to drive performance.

Key sums up the dilemma that real estate investors the world over are facing.

"We're seeing a seismic shift to higher inflation and interest rates. But will this boost property as an inflation hedge, or deflate interest as bond yields become more attractive?" he asks.

Clur’s insights and strategies into the prevailing retail bear market, and Key’s recommendations are just two of the topics being presented at the conference.

Key will chair the Growth and Income session, which is dedicated to unpacking the drivers of growth for SA property markets in the coming year. He will be joined by Leon Allison, division director at Macquarie First South, and Brian Azizollahoff, chief executive officer of Redefine Income Fund.

Heavyweight local speakers are scheduled to discuss and debate both the regional socio-economic factors affecting SA and fundamentals impacting property investors.

Respected academic, author and Overall Business Convenor at Nedlac Raymond Parsons will set the scene for the conference with an opening session entitled Emerging Trends, which will include insight from Brian Kantor, investment strategist at Investec and chairman of Acucap Properties, and FNB Commercial Banking property strategist John Loos.

The conference will take place on 7 and 8 August at The Pavilion Conference Centre at the V&A Waterfront in Cape Town.

Quick Polls

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The South African authorities are hard at work to ensure the country is removed from the global Financial Action Task Force grey-list by February or June 2025. What do you think about their ongoing efforts?

ANSWER

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End-2025 exit is too optimistic.
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