De-risking the planet: The trajectory of human evolution
Since the dawn of time, humanity has sought to control its environment. This goal has been one of the main drivers of the technological and cultural evolution of our species. Today, a much more technologically competent and aware humankind contemplates, m
Since ensuring the survival of the species is now inextricably linked to the health and well being of the planet, today scientists, governments, institutions, companies and individuals the world over contemplate the possibility of one day being able to significantly de-risk the planet. This would mean that many man-made catastrophes would cease to exist – eradicating wars, eco disasters, political unrest, poverty, unemployment, financial or economic crises and the like.
While this may seem like humanity’s ultimate hubris, the trajectory of our evolution points to a species gaining ever more effective control of its environment through technological, cultural and organisational adaptation, driven by experienced-based learning and environmental change.
“Although all forms of disaster continue to challenge the sustainability of businesses, governments and individuals, the increasing sophistication of the risk industry in measuring, quantifying, predicting and managing risk, introduces ever more control of what was previously considered unpredictable and unmanageable,” says Tom Healy, Unit Manager, Knowledge Centre, Marsh Africa.
Research from Swiss Re has revealed that, in 2012 alone, catastrophe losses occurred to the tune of around US $65 billion.
Headline disasters in the 2012 cycle included:
- Costa Concordia, January: $650 million
- Floods in Queensland, Australia, January: $2 000 million
- Floods in New South Wales, Australia, March: $500 million
- Drought in USA, August: $15 000 million
- Tropical Storm Sandy, USA, October: $25 000 million
- Hail storms on East Rand/Coast, South Africa, October: $950 million
- St Francis Bay fires, South Africa, November: R500 million
- Wildfires, Tasmania, Australia, December: R70 million
While this looks large, in comparison to 2011 when re-insurers stumped up US $113 billion, 2012 was a substantially less disastrous year.
Numbers aside, preparing to manage disasters effectively will enable humanity to bounce back more quickly. Moreover, in the process of seeking to manage disaster, our species is getting better at predicting and preventing the hitherto previously unpredictable.
What the numbers have done is ensure that the extreme cost of natural or man-made disasters has incentivised a better understanding and management of our natural, human, social, political and financial environments. “These are now increasingly managed in a way that recognises, prepares for and averts risk”, says Healy.
With no evidence of the frequency or severity of natural or man-made catastrophes or social, political and economic disruptions letting up in the near future, sound risk management and comprehensive insurance programmes remain imperative for businesses, governments and individuals across the globe.
As such, the expertise and specialist knowledge evolving in the risk management industry, as it seeks ever more effective ways of predicting, preventing and managing multiple risks, makes it “not entirely inconceivable that with enough insight, experience and technology, humankind may well one day get a long way towards its dream of re-risking the planet,” concludes Healy.
