The scope and shape of terrorism shifts

A recent  study by Aon, a leading global insurance broker and risk management company, shows that South Africa is on a par with the United States when it comes to the level of  terrorist threat conditions, with groups such as Islamic extremists and nationalists posing the biggest threats.

Johannesburg/Pretoria and Cape Town are three cities at particular risk, with an increase in kidnapping and ransom also playing a role in national security.  This in stark contrast to SA's neighbouring African countries of Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Zamiba who are all showing low to guarded terrorist threat conditions.

It should be noted that whist Zimbabwe is  included as showing low to guarded terrorist conditions, this is with reference to external threats and does not reflect its internal strife  which clearly has serious repercussions for its neighbouring territories.  With Zimbabwean inflation running at over 4000% and the general instability of its population, food shortages, petrol rationing etc. this could  prompt  a further influx of refugees across its boarders into South Africa and other neighboring territories..

The  map clearly shows that the scope and shape of terrorist threats around the world are shifting. This means that the vulnerabilities in a company's operations and revenue streams are also shifting, heightening the importance of fully understanding the changing nature of a business exposures.

Guy Scott, CEO of Aon Risk Services South Africa says SA companys can mitigate the terrorism threat by implementing a proportionate security risk management scheme to identify and reduce the vulnerabilities to personnel and business assets based upon an expert risk assessment. He says it is also key for businesses to transfer risk though an appropriate insurance policy to reduce the impact of any attack

The analysis for this years threat map, which provides an objective view of the terrorist threat in over 200 countries, indicates an apparent weakening of the Al Qaeda network and those terrorist groups operating under its umbrella.

Paul Bassett, executive director of Aon' Global Crisis Management,
explained: "The war on terror, especially in Afghanistan, appears to be disrupting the command and control element of Al Qaeda. Terror groups/cells at a country level are also more fragmented, resulting in lower levels of coordination.

"This has a downside, however, in that the many and varied plots are often unrelated. Just because one plot has been stopped in a certain country does not mean that other unrelated plots have been stopped or disrupted and vigilance is as critical as ever", Paul added.

On the other side of the coin, as terror networks become more fragmented and less coordinated, intelligence and counter-terrorism authorities appear to becoming more coordinated and organised on a global basis.

The implications for business are significant. "Businesses need to realise that the level and shape of the risk is constantly evolving and should be ever vigilant as a result," Paul warned. "As the risk profile changes, as parts of the world become more or less vulnerable to attack, the vulnerabilities in a business' operations and revenue streams also change.

"As conflicts in the Middle East change and mature, for example, we are likely to see more movement of Jihadists between countries, perhaps returning from conflicts to their home nation, which again influences the shape and scope of terrorism risk."