Extensive autumn flooding
The most frequently asked questions following extreme rainfall and flooding events tend to be loss-focused. Disaster response teams, economic commentators, insurance brokers, insurers and their loss adjusters, and even lowly journalists want to know how each event impacts on lives, livelihoods and both government and insurer/reinsurer balance sheets.
Assessing catastrophe losses
In the aftermath of a natural disaster, government departments field dozens of requests about the social impact, including deaths and the extent of damage to municipal and provincial infrastructure. News agencies, meanwhile, flood insurers and their PR teams with requests for information on the number of claims received and the potential cost of indemnifying business and household insureds. A broad estimate of loss and damage emerges quite soon; but the real numbers only crystallise months or years down the line.
Your writer recently received a detailed write-up on aspects of the country’s recent experience of what the source referred to as “extensive autumn flooding”. Haydn Marchant, Re/insurance Specialist at JBA Risk Management, shared a report that described the May 2026 weather event as “successive low-pressure systems bringing damaging winds and destructive flooding and landslides to large parts of South Africa.” If you have a home or family or friends in the affected areas, you definitely heard about it.
“The event is particularly notable due to the scale and persistence of the flooding, the exposure of vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure and the growing financial pressures associated with South Africa’s widening flood protection gap,” the report said. Rainfall totals exceeded 300mm in some areas, inundating communities, isolating towns and disrupting businesses, while transport, electricity and agricultural sectors experienced significant disruption.
A double national disaster
The latest bout of extreme weather, starting around 4 May, prompted the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) to declare a national disaster for the Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and Western Cape, and parts of the Free State and Mpumalanga provinces. A week or so later, a second disaster classification was issued for the same provinces minus Mpumalanga.
Santam, South Africa’s largest insurer, was aware of these and other extreme weather events when it sent out its first quarter 2026 trading update. The 18 May update was mostly upbeat, saying that the gross written premium (GWP), underwriting margin and return on capital in the first quarter were in line with long-term targets “despite significant weather-related and other large claims incurred during the three months.”
These claims, which will see losses net of reinsurance totalling approximately R430 million, were due to flooding in the northern part of South Africa and wildfires in the Western Cape between January and March. And then April and May happened. “We have not been notified of any significant claims from the flooding in the Western Cape in April 2026; but we anticipate significant claims from the widespread damage caused by the severe weather conditions in the Western Cape in May,” Santam wrote.
Catastrophe modelling to the fore
JBA, which promotes itself as The Flood People, says the latest floods “highlight the increasing importance of high-resolution flood risk data and probabilistic catastrophe modelling in understanding and managing flood risk across Southern Africa.” The UK-based flood science specialist is already working with some of the country’s large insurers, having announced a partnership with Old Mutual Insure in January 2024.
The report drew on EUMETSAT, Met Office and The Guardian data and reporting to offer a fascinating overview of the May 2026 floods. They wrote, “The floods were triggered by a succession of intense low-pressure systems affecting the southern and interior regions, particularly the Western and Eastern Cape. While such systems are not uncommon during the austral autumn, the severity of this event was exceptional due to the rapid intensification of the systems, their slow movement and the persistence of high rainfall over saturated catchments.”
The first major system developed rapidly between 5 and 6 May 2026 across the Eastern Cape. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure strengthened over Namibia and parts of the Northern Cape, with the strong pressure gradient between the two systems generating damaging winds, with gusts exceeding 97 km/h in exposed areas and mountainous terrain. A slow-moving low-pressure system then allowed an occluded front to remain stationary over the Eastern and Western Cape between 6 and 7 May, producing extreme rainfall accumulations.
“From 6 to 12 May, mountainous regions of the Western Cape received up to an estimated 600mm of rainfall, exacerbating flooding impacts in areas already affected by the earlier storm systems,” the report said, noting AP News reports of at least 10 fatalities by 12 May. Based on reporting in The Guardian, the storms caused major damage to transport and utility infrastructure across the Garden Route District and other parts of the Western Cape, with 45 reported road closures and widespread power outages due to floodwaters, fallen debris and landslides.
Urban and rural communities at risk
According to the report, “the event demonstrated the vulnerability of both urban and rural communities to extreme rainfall and highlighted the cascading impacts of severe flooding on infrastructure, transport and the agricultural sector across southern South Africa.” Notables points included that the Breede River in the Western Cape’s Winelands district had burst its banks, flooding multiple vineyards. The report concluded that economic losses from historic flood events suggest the May 2026 floods will result in a multi-million US dollar loss.
The news wires were full of images of the destruction, suggesting extensive damage to public infrastructure and both business and residential properties, with business interruption and emergency response costs adding to the total. South Africa’s low insurance penetration for flood risks means that businesses, households and national government will end up carrying the bulk of the losses, as they did after the April 2022 KwaZulu-Natal floods. Insurers and reinsurers typically pick up around 30% of the economic losses following these events.
Tandiwe Cimela, Executive: Elite Risk, shared some initial assessments with your writer. “We have received more than 230 claims following the severe and devastating weather events that recently affected parts of the Eastern and Western Cape,” she said. “We anticipate that claims volumes may continue to rise as the full impact across the market becomes clearer.” By 21 May, the insurer estimated its CAT-related claims exposure in the affected areas at around R15 million.
Early warnings and preparedness
“The frequency and severity of weather-related events continue to highlight an evolving risk landscape, with flooding becoming an increasingly material exposure across both urban and rural environments,” Cimela said. “Events such as these reinforce the importance of early warning systems, municipal preparedness, and client-level resilience measures in managing overall loss outcomes.”
The insurer offered some practical steps for brokers and policyholders to minimise exposure, including ensuring that drainage systems, gutters and stormwater channels are clear and functioning; that known water ingress points are remedied before heavy rainfall; that high-value items are not stored directly on ground level; and that basic property resilience measures are maintained, including sandbags where appropriate and proper run-off management. Insureds should also do contingency planning for potential power outages or road closures.
Financial and humanitarian impact
The broader insurance and reinsurance sector will be monitoring the April and May extreme weather events with growing concern. As the report concluded, “The May 2026 South Africa floods were an exceptional event due to the rapid intensification of multiple low-pressure systems and high rainfall totals over saturated catchments; these floods highlight the growing financial and humanitarian impacts of severe flooding across the region, particularly in areas of low insurance penetration and high property and infrastructure exposure and vulnerability.”
Writer’s thoughts:
Today’s newsletter is a timely reminder that prevention is better than cure when mitigating your clients’ exposure to extreme weather events. How often do you visit client sites, and what flood-preparedness shockers do you most often find? Please comment below, interact with us on X at @fanews_online or email us your thoughts [email protected].
