Can higher interest rates really lead to insurance fraud?
As South African consumers brace for another interest rate hike next week questions have surfaced about the knock-on impact of declining disposable income on the insurance industry. We’ll keep things simple and only consider the short-term insurance industry in this newsletter.
The first thing the short-term insurer will notice is an increase in missed premiums and an increase in policy lapses. These developments will also reflect in declining policy longevity. No doubt revenue and operating expenses will be negatively affected too. We expect short-term insurers will face declining recurring premiums and a serious dent in new business premiums. Underwriting margins will be squeezed from both sides with the market unable to absorb premium increases while inflation drives the cost of settling claims higher.
Could insurance fraud increase from current high levels?
But there could be other consequences. In a recent media release Adam Samie, CEO of Lion of Africa Insurance alleges that insurance fraud is costing the country nearly R2 billion per annum. He estimates that more than one in 10 short-term insurance claims could be fraudulent. And he suggests that instances of fraud will escalate as consumers and businesses come under increasing cash flow pressure. The problem with escalating insurance fraud is that the costs associated with fraudulent claims are inevitably borne by the entire pool of policyholders. Because insurers are also feeling the pinch in the current high inflation environment the impact of additional fraudulent claims will be difficult to soften. “In the current economic climate any further increases in fraudulent claims will present even more unfortunate and negative predicaments for honest consumers who will ultimately be bearing the brunt as a result of higher premiums implemented by insurers in an effort to recoup their losses” says Samie.
And of course when insurers incur additional costs they are left with little option but to pass these on to the policyholder. Samie notes: “With the likelihood of insurance premium increases already being high, the industry at large needs to come together, share information and act fast in order to safeguard and protect our consumers [from fraud].” Estimates from the UK place the cost to honest policyholders at approximately GBP40 per annum. A direct conversion of this amount suggests South African policyholders could already be paying around R50 per month ‘extra’ to short-term premiums.
Another crime fighting initiative
The recently launched Insurance Crime Bureau (ICB) is an industry body established specifically to prevent insurance crimes in South Africa. Samie says “the ICB forms one of the many crime fighting units in the country and we believe that this initiative will play a role in reducing the economic cost of crime to the country.” It is hoped this unit will have successes on a similar scale to the various anti insurance fraud units established in the UK and Switzerland. The ICB will play an active role in identifying the perpetrators of insurance fraud before handing offenders to the relevant authorities for prosecution.
The ICB will operate as a non profit organisation and should be up and running in the next four to five months. It will make use of sophisticated systems to identify patterns in insurance claims data. Ten major short-term insurers will work with the ICB on this fraud prevention initiative. They include Santam, Mutual & Federal, Outsurance, Hollard, the Telesure Group, Absa Insurance Company, Lion of Africa, Regent, and Standard Insurance.
Second hand car prices plummet – but
But there are other concerns in the current high inflation / high interest environments. In the June issue of FAnews magazine [subscribe here] we carry an article on the impact of falling second hand car prices on short-term insurers. It occurred to us that many motor vehicle policy holders were stuck with vehicles with ‘achievable’ selling prices substantially below dealer trade prices. This situation will worsen as new passenger car sales dry up and dealers are faced with more clients desperate to sell. Surely this situation would prompt many (especially those struggling with soaring hire purchase repayments) to initiate false motor claims.
Once again, most of the short-term players we spoke to said that while they believed economic hardship might lead to increased fraud they could not identify such a trend. Perhaps policyholders have mores scruples than they’re being credited with; or perhaps these categories of fraud are simply too difficult to identify.
Editor’s thoughts:
The short-term insurers we’ve spoken to say that it’s very difficult to tie changes in insurance trends to a single economic indicator. Yet Lion of Africa and SAIA suggest that higher interest rates translate directly into higher instances of insurance fraud. Do you think there’s a link between insurance fraud and the consumers’ economic hardship? Add your comments below, or send them to [email protected]
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