The playground of Armageddon

If we were ever in doubt that global warming is a thing, we just need to think back to the apocalyptic weather events of the end of July to give us a stark reminder of this reality.

Tornadoes in Tembisa and Magaliesburg, golf sized hailstones in parts of Gauteng as well as flooding in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Western Cape have kept insurers on their toes of late.

David Simmonds, MD Willis RE Capital, delivered an eye opening presentation at the 2016 Insurance Institute of Southern Africa’s (IISA) annual conference on the impact that climate change is having on Africa.

Realism and denialism

“While there are a great number of people in the world who have come to terms with climate change and global warming, it is strange to think that there are still denialists in society who think that climate change is being used as a blame tool when there is a lack of policy,” said Simmons.

He followed this up with a stern warning that climate change is a reality and that a lot of money and intellectual efforts are being put into building climate change models so that we can predict current trends.

As it stands

“Rainfall around the wold is varied, and it is particularly bad in Africa. Scientists and climatologists believe that seven of the ten worst affected countries will be African countries with South Africa being one of them,” said Simmons.

Despite the rain we have experienced, we are in the midst of a drought, which is being driven by El Niño, which is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

While El Niño is causing havoc in the Southern Hemisphere, La Niña – the counterpart to El Niño – is having a pronounced effect in the Northern Hemisphere with heavy rains falling in East Africa.

The effects

Not much can be said about the drought that has not already been said in various forums. We all know about the reality that is facing us. However, Simmons pointed out that the chances of South Africa’s crop yield dropping to 200 kilograms per hectare is good and has progressed from a one in nine year event to a one in five year event.

This is troubling indeed if we consider the effects of this on the economy as well as on the macro economic situation in South Africa. Erratic weather events will affect food security, will cause significant health issues, will lead to a degradation of the ecosystem and will lead to population displacement where there will be a greater concentration in urbanised areas.

The world awakens

A recent report by Reuters put the situation into further perspective. The report pointed out that some 23 million farmers in drought-hit Southern Africa need urgent help to prepare for the next planting season with only a few weeks left before it begins. This announcement was made by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on 21 July.

FAO said failure to help farmers in time with seeds, fertilizer and tools would result in a smaller harvest in March 2017, and leave millions of rural families dependent on humanitarian assistance until mid-2018.

"We must make the most of this small window of opportunity and make sure that farmers are ready to plant by October when the rain starts," David Phiri, FAO Sub-Regional Coordinator for Southern Africa, said in a statement.

"The main way people are able to access food is through what they themselves produce. Assisting them to do this will provide lifesaving support in a region where at least 70% of people rely on agriculture for their livelihoods."

The cattle’s mournful songs

The report further pointed out that Botswana, Swaziland, South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe reported more than 640 000 drought-related livestock deaths due to disease outbreaks and a lack of pasture and water.

It said it needed at least $109 million to help farmers and cattle herders in 10 countries that requested assistance. These come from Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The Southern African Development Community declared the drought a regional disaster, and called for $2.4 billion to help 40 million people in the region to fight hunger.

Winter is coming

No, you are not watching Game of Thrones, and no, you are not hearing Sean Bean’s voice in your head. This is actually a reality, after Global Warming comes Global Cooling.

Reports by Astonomynow.com state that the arrival of intense cold similar to the one that raged during the Little Ice Age, which froze the world during the 17th century and in the beginning of the 18th century, is expected in the years 2030 to 2040.

These conclusions were presented by Professor V. Zharkova (a Professor from Northumbria University) during the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno in Wales in July.

It is known that the Sun has its own magnetic field, the amplitude and spatial configuration of which vary with time. The formation and decay of strong magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere results in the changes of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, of the intensity of plasma flows coming from the Sun, and the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface will cause the Ice Age.

Product development has never been as key as it is now. Weather events are a growing phenomenon and are having greater impacts than ever before. It is time for you to be your client’s valued business partner.