A banquet no one hopes will take place

"It is like a table that’s been set for a banquet no one hopes will take place,” explains Debbie Scheepers, executive head of client underwriting services at Centriq Insurance.

Then, disaster strikes and the landscape drastically changes when the risk goes from theoretical to actual, and your best plan is severely tested. "At this point, you realise no matter how wonderful the chef, and how beautiful the table has been set, no banquet is successful without trained staff to serve the meal and clear the table. And your planning in anticipation for the next banquet begins anew,” notes Scheepers.

Reality is that bush fires (natural vegetation fires) are on the increase and constantly occurs. Currently, between 330-431 million km2 of vegetation burn world-wide each year.

While numerous factors including climate change-altered fire regimes, rural-urban population shifts, and land-use change affecting vegetation and fuel conditions play a role, the majority of woodland fire is caused by humans. A portion of the vast amount of fire that occurs globally inevitably becomes uncontrolled wildfires, of which a small percentage has disastrous social, economic and/or environmental impacts.

Commenting on what early warning systems an insurer can apply to its pre-property claim mitigation process, Scheepers uses a farm as an example.

"The most obvious factor beyond the farmer’s control is the weather. To mitigate his fire-related problems and escalating fire suppression costs, he requires early warning of extreme fire danger conditions that lead to uncontrolled wildfires. That way, his farm’s fire managers can implement fire prevention, detection, and pre-suppression action plans before fire problems begin,” she says.

Fire danger information is often enhanced with satellite data such as hot spots for early fire detection, and with spectral data on land cover and fuel conditions.

"Normally, fire danger rating systems provide a four to six hour early warning of the highest fire danger. By using forecasted conditions from advanced numerical weather models, extended early warning of one to two weeks can be provided! This extra time allows for greater coordination of resource sharing and mobilisation within and between government and civilian agencies,” notes Debbie, "Armed with this information, Insurers could alert clients of changing weather conditions via a simple SMS, giving them time to wet down roofs, prepare fire teams or move people to safety,” she says.

Scheepers’ colleague Robin Burgess, who is a senior underwriter at Centriq Insurance, says the recent hail storms in Johannesburg highlighted the need for a policyholder alerting procedure.

"The South African Weather Service has meteorically data going back as far as 150 years for much of Southern Africa. In partnering with them, insurers could have access to live updates of changing weather conditions. We can compare their data to our own, which will help us pin-point areas of concern before disaster strikes, and alert policyholders to seek shelter for their motor vehicles for example. Insurers can also train and fund reaction teams to help prepare policyholders for perennial flood, bush fires or severe thunderstorms,” notes Burgess.

The South African Weather Service has recently installed early warning radar systems in areas prone to severe weather. The system monitors cloud formations over an area of 300 km2. Equipped with high speed computers, the information is processed and fed to local authorities in the event of impending severe weather.

"Pre-catastrophe warning systems are invaluable in reducing the loss of human life and claims costs. Instead of saying: we hope the losses will not be too high, insurers should have the mindset of: this is what we can do to help clients before catastrophe hits.