We've been inundated with opinions from experts and analysts about what 2008 will bring. Perhaps it is time to hear what the people say and what the sentiment on the ground is - it is after all the people who ultimately drive the great big wheels of global economies.
If you have been reading some of the diverse expert opinions and predictions for what 2008 will bring, you may be feeling somewhat ambivalent about what to expect. In general, the consensus is that we are in for a tough year, and there will be many challenges to face. As always the challenges bring opportunities for those who are willing to look for them.
However, the realissue is the optimism of the people - the workers, the consumers and middle-class money-spenders and investors who ultimately drive the economies of the world. The views and the mood of the citizens of the world will impact greatly on the future and it is important that business and political leaders understand what people are really thinking, and what the world demands of its leaders.
According to the Gallup International Voice of the PeopleTM End of the Year Survey, a third of the more than 50 000 people interviewed globally are optimistic about the year to come (33%), while 32% forecast no major changes and a quarter (26%) are pessimistic. These figures were established from the answers received to the question “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2008 will be better or worse than 2007?”
The survey was conducted between October and December 2007 and people from 54 countries were interviewed, including 1 500 adult (16+) South Africans with landline telephones.
Despite this appearance of general optimism,respondents forecasting economic difficulties and an increase in unemployment (35% and 43% respectively) outnumber those with views of economic prosperity (20%) and a reduction in unemployment levels (21%). On the international front, almost four out of ten (38%) people globally feel that 2008 will be a troubled year with much international discord; whilst only one in ten believe it will be a peaceful year (11%). The remaining 42% think things will remain similar to 2007.
Safety and security
With regard to the question whether the next generation will live in a safer world, South Africans were slightly more optimistic than the rest of the world, with 12% saying that the world will be a lot safer for the next generation. But globally, a quarter (25%) think the world will either be much or slightly safer, but they are outweighed by almost half of all respondents (48%) who feel that the next generation will live in a less safe world. This finding is consistent with last year's results, with Western Europe and North America (USA and Canada) the most pessimistic about future prospects for safety.
Economic prosperity
In terms of the outlook for economic prosperity, a third of global respondents (33%) indicated that the next generation will live in a much or slightly more economically prosperous world than we are experiencing at the moment, a similar proportion (36%) felt that future generations would be much or slightly less prosperous.
Africans, however, are very optimistic about prosperity for future generations with 71% overall in the five countries included in the survey stating that the next generation will enjoy slightly or much more prosperity than they do now. This is particularly true of Nigerians (78%) and Kenyans (67%), although it should be noted that the survey was taken before the recent unrest in Kenya.
South Africans are not as optimistic as the rest of the continent, with only 17% predicting that the next generation will enjoy more prosperity than they do now.
Priority issues
People were also asked what they think leaders should focus on in the coming year. Economic objectives such as eliminating poverty, promoting economic growth, reducing wars, extending the war on terror, protecting the environment and closing the gap between rich and poor were ranked at the top five priorities. The fight against the spread of HIV and Aids ranked poorly in global terms but was identified as the second most important issue by South Africans, who also placed eliminating poverty and hunger at the top of their list.
Who to trust?
As in previous years, business leaders are consistently rated more positively than political leaders. The latter group is heavily criticised for being dishonest by six out of ten global citizens (60%) - a considerable increase from the 43% of last year. Indeed, all negative associations with politicians have increased considerably since last year and while this is also true of business leaders, the increase is much less marked. Seven out of ten Africans (71%) and the same proportion of US citizens think their political leaders are dishonest. However, in the rest of Africa, the vast majority (70%) declared they trust religious leaders.
Globally, the distrust of trade unionists is only exceeded by the distrust of politicians, and even lawyers and journaists enjoy more trust. Teachers are the most widely trusted group globally,and citizens around the world indicated that they would like to give more power to teachers and intellectuals, including writers and academics.
Job security
The survey also found that one in four working world citizens (24%) think there is a chance they may become unemployed. South Africans were more optimistic, with two-thirds (68%) indicating that they thought their jobs were safe. Whereas 36% of the global respondents think they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly should they become unemployed, almost half (47%) fear it may take longer. In South Africa, views are divided: 43% indicated that they will find a new job quickly, while the same proportion fears that it might take longer. Five percent said that they would not look for new employment.
Education appears to be a key factor: although 39% of those with high-level education are optimistic about their ability to overcome unemployment in a short time; only 25% of those with primary education echo this optimism. Confidence on this matter also diminishes with age: only two in ten respondents older than 51 years think they would find a job fairly quickly, as opposed to four in ten (42%) of those below 30.
The survey highlights the issues that the citizens of the world are focussing on, the problems they grapple with and their fears and concerns. It provides a refreshing insight into the issues that are uppermost in the minds of citizens around the world. Insurers and brokers could do well to take heed of the attitudes and opinions expressed and to structure their offerings and services to address the issues that have been highlighted as the concerns for the year to come.
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