Measuring the success of a nation

Gareth Stokes, FAnews Online Editor

If there was a prize for New Year press releases then the SA Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR) would definitely be in the running. We’re only in the first week of February and the organisation has shared the results of countless surveys, usually presenting them with some or other racial slant. That’s why I enjoyed their latest comment on South Africa’s Human Development Index (HDI), a United Nations Development Program measure to determine whether a country classifies as developed, developing or underdeveloped.

The latest result confirms our country’s steady recovery, which kicked off in 2007 following a 17-year slide. SAIRR researcher Thuthukani Ndebele said last week: “This upward trend looks set to continue, which means South Africa should expect further rises in its HDI, barring any negative changes in educational attainment or GDP per capita.” Given government’s recent obsession with inflating matriculation results and forecasts of around 3% GDP through 2011, these outcomes should be attainable.

The science of ranking countries

How is HDI calculated? The index is compiled from United Nations data and combines statistics such as life expectancy, literacy, educational attainment and per capita gross domestic product (GDP). South Africa was progressing reasonably well during the dark years of Apartheid, with the measure improving between 1980 and 1990, when it stood at 0.601 points. But the country’s life expectancy measure – largely impacted by the ravages of HIV / Aids – sent the HDI into a downward spiral to just 0.587 points in 2005. The UN reports South Africa’s 2010 HDI number as 0.597 points.

Life expectancy improved moderately between 2005 and 2007. Statistics SA data confirms male life expectancy improved from 50.3 years to 51.4 years over the period, while female life expectancy climbed from 52.6 years to 53.4 years. “This increase in life expectancy between 2005 and 2007 accounts for the increase in South Africa’s HDI,” observes Ndebele. The statistics have improved further, with 53.2 years and 55.2 years life expectancy by 2010. Incidentally, the latest HDI calculation lists SA life expectancy as 52-years.

The HDI Report observes: “South Africa’s 0.597 points ranks it 110 out of 169 countries with comparable data. The HDI of sub-Saharan Africa as a region increased from 0.293 in 1980 to 0.389 today, placing South Africa above the regional average. The HDI trends tell an important story both at the national and regional level and highlight the very large gaps in well-being and life chances that continue to divide our interconnected world.”

How South Africa compares

South Africa slots in between Kyrgyzstan (109^th) and the Syrian Arab Republic (111^th) and the UN categorises our economy as one exhibiting Medium Human Development. Our northern neighbours, Zimbabwe, occupy 169^th position, at the bottom of the Low Human Development list. There were few surprises among the top five, with Norway, Australia, New Zealand, United States and Ireland taking the honours.

To improve our score – and perhaps gun for the 0.938 score achieved by Norway – South Africa would have to focus on health, education and income. Our health score, currently 0.506, can be easily improved if we address the country’s shocking under-five mortality rate, currently at 67 deaths per 1000 births. Norway boasts a life expectancy of 81 years and reports just 5 under-five mortalities per 1000 births. Likewise a small improvement in the number of internet users (currently 8.6 per hundred people) and mean years of schooling (a disappointing 8.2 years considering our 12-year basic education structure) would significantly improve our performance in the education pillar. The United States achieves 75.9 out of 100 people with internet access and 12.4 mean years of schooling.

Recent government initiatives such as the proposed National Health Insurance (NHI) system and the ongoing drive to improve basic education are steps in the right direction. But the challenge going forward will be to ensure we get “bang for buck” when spending in these areas.

Editor’s thoughts: When I set out to write today’s newsletter I wanted to concentrate on the “feel good” improvements South Africa has made in the HDI index over the past couple of years. But we’ve got such a long way to go, I’d be doing everyone a disservice by trumpeting our 2010 ranking. Is South Africa performing well enough on the global stage given its unbelievable potential? Add your comment below, or send it to gareth@fanews.co.za