Caught off guard by Covid-19… the reality
“Many people were caught off guard by Covid-19. That's the reality. This has necessitated a crisis response and the need to be responsive to emerging data and be better prepared,” said David Jewell, Liberty Executive for Retail Solutions.
The COVID 19 Future Trends Report: Navigating The Flux report commissioned by
Liberty, looked at the direct and indirect short and long term health effects of COVID 19 on South African citizens and heath care providers.
The health ripple effects of Covid-19
In the short term, the biggest threat to healthcare systems (and insurers) is that of hospital and ICU overload as first wave COVID-19 victims seek urgent medical attention.
Second order systems effects include a negative impact on patients with other critical and chronic conditions who will out of fear or out of necessity delay going to hospitals for treatments or procedures until the risk of contracting COVID-19 is reduced and/or until hospitals have the resources to attend to them.
In the mid-term, the heath and financial costs from these delayed treatments could be significant for patients and insurers.
In the long term, there are also unknowns around the lasting heath complications for COVID-19 survivors. Already the indications are that the disease causes lung damage, indicating that these individuals could require chronic care, which may affect their insurers too. There are numerous other complicating factors, which are dealt with in the report.
“The long term factors are important. Age is a key indicator of the complications. The biggest indirect effect we have picked up due to Covid-19 is mental wellness issues,” said Bronwyn Williams, Translator and Future Finance Specialist at Flux Trends.
Immediate direct health effects
According to the Worth Heath Organization, most infected people will develop a mild to moderate illness and recover without hospitalisation. Although data varies from population to population, approximately 20% to 30% of COVID-19 cases require hospitalisation, approximately 5%-12% require ICU admission and between 1% and 4% of cases result in fatality. Severity and morbidity vary significantly with age, gender, demographics, wealth, living arrangements, professional risk, and identified comorbidities. In particular, the risk of death increases in the over 50 age group, as does being male, obese, or having underlying heart, lung, liver or kidney disease.
“The top five comorbidities are hypertension, obesity, chronic lung disease, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. These are associated with serious COVID-19 illness. Despite the comorbidities listed above, age is the single highest (indeed some experts have ventured to say the “only certain”) risk factor for COVID-19 complications. In South Africa, 80% of COVID-19 deaths (as of 2 May 2020) were people over the age of 50. The average age of those who died was 64, and most deaths – almost a quarter – were of people aged 60 to 69. Poor communities without access to health care, with degraded and crowded living conditions and a lack of basic opportunities for health and wellness, are hotspots for COVID-19 transmission,” said Williams.
Short run indirect health effects
“Notable second-order side effects from COVID-19 include the impact lockdowns and COVID-related stress and loneliness have had on mental health and wellness particularly the prevalence of depression. Notably, skin hunger, is a medical condition where a lack of human contact is correlated with mental and physical illness,” said Williams.
A global study conducted by SAP, Qualtrics, and Mind Share Partners, found COVID-19 is impacting mental health around the world. Over 40% of respondents said their mental health has declined since the COVID-19 outbreak and the number of people who describe the state of their mental health as a 3 or less on a 10-point scale has doubled.
“Other studies have shown chronic loneliness has clear links to health problems ranging from dementia, depression, anxiety and self-harm, to heart conditions and substance abuse. Furthermore, people without social support have a lower chance of full recovery after a serious illness than people with strong social support. Now COVID-19 lockdowns are exacerbating the situation for many people around the world,” added Williams.
“Workplace stress has a direct impact on mental health. Now, with COVID-19 forcing millions of employees to adapt to new remote working environments, those who say their manager is not attuned to their wellbeing don’t adjust as well to new ways of working, according to a study by SAP, Qualtrics and Mind Share Partners. They are almost 70% more likely to say their mental health has declined since the outbreak and 61% more likely to indicate they’ve been less productive. Furthermore, as remote work has many employees struggling to set healthy boundaries, many are working more hours to demonstrate their commitment to employers. As the COVID-19 situation drags on with an uncertain end date, a recent Glint survey reveals that comments around burnout doubled from March to April 2020, increasing from 2.7% to 5.4%,” said Williams.
“The national coronavirus lockdown and its effects have also led to an increase in depression, anxiety and suicide thoughts among South Africans. Financial stress, due to lost income and jobs, is also likely to impact on physical stress and related complications,” added Williams.
Direct long run health effects
According to Dr Samira Bell, Kidney Specialist, Ninewells Hospital, Dundee "We are seeing that patients are suffering from moderate to severe acute kidney injury in about 20 to 30% of patients and 30% of patients who are admitted to intensive care for COVID infection are requiring dialysis so the numbers are much bigger than we envisaged based on the data coming out of China.”
Indirect long run health effects
“Long run systems effects include a negative impact on patients with other critical and chronic conditions who will out of fear or out of necessity delay going to hospitals for treatments or procedures until the risk of contracting COVID 19 is reduced and/or until hospitals have the resources to attend to them. In the mid-term, the health and financial costs from these delayed treatments could be significant for patients and insurers. In the long run, overall longevity and lifespans could be reduced due to the economic impact on living standards and overall healthcare available,” said Williams.
“In South Africa, researchers estimate that COVID 19 precautionary measures will result in 146,000 cancelled surgeries, 12,000 for cancer. A long lockdown will lead to much sicker patients and dramatic increases in death rates for major illnesses such as cancer. The number of people who die as a result of these delays could end up exceeding deaths due to COVID 19. Conversely, a 1% reduction in GDP, will decrease life expectancy by approximately 10 days,” added Williams.
Providing certainty in times of uncertainty
“Many households have been hard hit by Covid-19. SA consumers continue to remain unprepared for the unexpected. It will take about three years for GDP and growth to go back to pre-covid times. We could see a cut in consumer spending as households face financial pressures, high unemployment, etc,” said Ndivhuho Netshitenzhe, Economist at Stanlib.
“No doubt there has been huge economic damage and loss, loss of life etc. Looking at the long term effect, there is still uncertainty. Our role is to provide certainty to clients by meeting their needs. Covid-19 has changed client's perception and need for life insurance. We expect an increase in demand, providing certainty for life's unexpected,” concluded Jewell.
Writer’s Thoughts
Although the trends are worrying, only time will tell as to the true effect and outcome of Covid-19. The emerging data can help insurers better prepare, and in times of uncertainty, the industry can provide certainty to clients, by meeting their needs. What are some of the concerns your clients have faced and how have you helped them get through these tough times? If you have any questions please comment below, interact with us on Twitter at @fanews_online or email me – myra@fanews.co.za
