Old Mutual notes decline in rate of AIDS deaths

: In 2012, it’s hard to imagine a world without Aids. And yet, mounting evidence shows the global community is making large strides towards managing the effects of AIDS more effectively. The UNAIDS vision of “zero new infections” and “zero Aids related de

A number of large employers and retirement funds insured by Old Mutual have experienced a marked reduction in the number of deaths in recent years, reports Neil Parkin, Group Assurance Actuary at Old Mutual Corporate.

“To test this theory on a wider scale, we looked at the experience of some of the largest groups with risk cover. In total this included half a million people over four years and some 15 000 deaths. To remove the effect of changing numbers of people in the group, we looked at the number of deaths per 1000 people, which is shown below,” he says.

Parkin explains that since 2008, this high level analysis shows a 20% reduction in the mortality rate. “Simply put – fewer people are dying. However, this change is not uniform across all groups. Higher earning groups with low mortality rates have generally not seen any change over the period. The real driver of the reduction stems from groups which have high death rates,” he says.

According to Parkin, since Aids is not generally recorded as a cause of death, it’s not possible to directly test the assumption that a reduction in Aids deaths is driving this, although it is the most likely reason. “Increased access to antiretrovirals, as well as changing protocols that call for earlier treatment, is undoubtedly changing the war against the disease,” he says.

Parkin says various studies emerging over the last year are starting to reveal the same picture.

The Medical Research Council’s (MRC) latest Rapid Mortality Surveillance Report shows that South Africans’ life expectancy at birth has increased from 56.5 years in 2009 to 60 years in 2011. In 2005 the MRC estimated that half of 15 year olds would die before reaching age 60. In 2011 this has reduced to 40%.

The UNAIDS Global Report 2012 provides further support for this. They estimate that sub-Saharan Africa has seen a 25% reduction in new HIV infections in 2011 compared with 2001. In keeping with this, the number of Aids deaths has reduced by 32% since 2005.

According to Parkin, if the above all bears true, then we should continue to see fewer deaths and with it, lower group risk premiums for affected clients. “The extent of the reduction naturally depends on how Aids currently affects the group (e.g. Western Cape companies may not see a decrease), and how Aids is managed within the workforce,” he says.

Parkin explains that since 2008, this high level analysis shows a 20% reduction in the mortality rate. “Simply put – fewer people are dying. However, this change is not uniform across all groups. Higher earning groups with low mortality rates have generally not seen any change over the period. The real driver of the reduction stems from groups which have high death rates,” he says.

According to Parkin, since Aids is not generally recorded as a cause of death, it’s not possible to directly test the assumption that a reduction in Aids deaths is driving this, although it is the most likely reason. “Increased access to antiretrovirals, as well as changing protocols that call for earlier treatment, is undoubtedly changing the war against the disease,” he says.

Parkin says various studies emerging over the last year are starting to reveal the same picture.

The Medical Research Council’s (MRC) latest Rapid Mortality Surveillance Report shows that South Africans’ life expectancy at birth has increased from 56.5 years in 2009 to 60 years in 2011. In 2005 the MRC estimated that half of 15 year olds would die before reaching age 60. In 2011 this has reduced to 40%.

The UNAIDS Global Report 2012 provides further support for this. They estimate that sub-Saharan Africa has seen a 25% reduction in new HIV infections in 2011 compared with 2001. In keeping with this, the number of Aids deaths has reduced by 32% since 2005.

According to Parkin, if the above all bears true, then we should continue to see fewer deaths and with it, lower group risk premiums for affected clients. “The extent of the reduction naturally depends on how Aids currently affects the group (e.g. Western Cape companies may not see a decrease), and how Aids is managed within the workforce,” he says.