Pockets of Opportunity in Europe, Emerging Markets
In early 2014, there seemed to be a few more areas of concern than we saw in late 2013. There has been some questioning of the stability of the US economic recovery, and of course, worries about prospects for emerging markets. That said, we are still finding plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the global equity outlook this year, and we are still finding values. We feel confident enough in the story of the US economic recovery from the 2007–2009 financial crisis that it almost sounds strange to us to still call it “recovery.” It feels pretty stable, considering the revival we’ve seen in the housing market, the improvement in household incomes, the deleveraging on the private sector side, and the impressive amounts of cash US corporations have on their balance sheets. That being the case, US valuations have come up, and while we still like the United States, as value investors we feel more strongly about European equities. European equity markets also performed well in 2013, but according to our analysis, Europe appears generally more compelling than the United States in terms of where earnings are, where margins are, and the amount of catch-up European companies continue to do in relation to the United States.