Tough first quarter for South African economy
Four important StatsSA data releases of last week - together with the previous week’s manufacturing data showing a 1.6% quarterly decline - confirm the view that the local economy struggled in the first quarter. Real retail sales grew by 1% year-on-year in March, down from 2.3% in February. Year-on-year comparisons can be tricky this time of year due to the Easter long weekend shifting between March and April, but the second consecutive month-on-month decline (-1.4% in March and -0.3 in February) suggests that the weakening trend in retail spending is resuming. January’s strong numbers now appear to be an outlier. On a quarterly basis, seasonally adjusted retail sales increased by only 0.6% in real terms in the first quarter compared to the last quarter of 2014. Compared to the first quarter of 2013, growth was 3.2%.