Inflation: Dead, or just forgotten?
The US and global economies are six years into their post-global financial crisis (GFC) recoveries, and growth has proved resilient to a number of shocks. Yet a widespread and deep-seated pessimism continues to characterize the economic debate and financial market dynamics. The Secular Stagnation hypothesis recently revived by a former US Treasury Secretary and many others perhaps best encapsulates this pessimism. In a nutshell, Secular Stagnation posits that the global economy suffers from a structural lack of aggregate demand and a chronic excess of desired savings over desired investment; this results in permanently low levels of economic growth, inflation and interest rates. Indeed, a number of economists and commentators have repeatedly raised the fear that the global economy might fall into stagnation and/or deflation.