Market update: July 2016 - SA economy remained glum
The outlook for the South African economy remained glum during the month of July. The most worrying data came from the SA Reserve Bank (SARB), as it revised its growth forecast for 2016 down to 0%. Needless to say, this is much less than the country needs to alleviate persistent unemployment and deflect a downgrade by ratings agencies. Fitch followed the same logic and promptly downgraded its SA local-currency debt rating to bring it in line with its foreign-currency rating – one notch above junk. With this no- to negative-growth outlook, the SARB decided to keep rates on hold despite PPI printing at 6.8% year-on-year for June and CPI at 6.3%, breaching the SARB’s upper limit.