Looking for measured consolidation and faster growth
The message from Finance Minister Gordhan at this year’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was one of “measured consolidation” and a call to tackle South Africa’s problems in a committed, coherent and coordinated way. Government will take steps to reduce its budget deficit (the difference between spending and revenue) over the next three years. Closing the deficit too quickly – through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases – risks tipping the economy into recession and worsening the debt-to-GDP ratio, instead of reducing it (ask Greece). Closing it too slowly, especially relative to promises made, risks a loss of credibility, ratings downgrades, and therefore higher borrowing costs that will end up increasing the debt ratio.