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Forecasting in financial markets is dangerous

06 February 2017 | General

2017, at this point at least, seems to promise more positivity for the investment world than last year did.

Hindsight is never an exact science

06 February 2017 | Economy

Distortion is the action of distorting or the state of being distorted. Alternatively, it is the action of giving a misleading account or impression. We are living in a world where the trend of focused investing is becoming more prevalent. Gone are the days where a policyholder hands over control to a fund manager without any interaction, or some level of control. The policyholder of today wants to be informed and wants to be able to exert some measure of control over his or her investment, no matter how small.

Low growth, high debt. How did we get here?

03 February 2017 | General

‘Today we live in a world with very low interest rates, which are likely to cause very low returns from global bonds and which have changed the pricing levels on all alternative asset classes,’ says Frederick White, co-manager of the Sanlam Investment Management (SIM) Balanced Fund. It is also a highly indebted world, incentivising governments to keep interest rates low, which could allow some inflation into the system. And rising protectionism could reduce trade and contribute further to inflation. It is also a world in which China’s growth is slowing and emerging markets, including South Africa, are adapting to the hardship following the downturn in the commodities cycle.

Asset allocation: greater investment optimism heading into 2017

02 February 2017 | General

Uncertainty continues to dominate global markets – think Trump as US president, the Brexit process gaining momentum and potentially high-stakes elections in Europe. On the local front, the ANC leadership succession battle is starting to heat up. Investors may be forgiven for feeling jittery going into 2017. While I do believe our nerves will continue to be sorely tested, I’m more optimistic about investment prospects for the year ahead compared to those of 2016 – especially looking beyond the daily ‘noise’ at the crucial considerations of price, perspective and pattern.

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