Back to the budget drawing board
Facing a R50 billion tax revenue shortfall, Minister Gigaba and the National Treasury team only had three options to choose from in preparing the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). They could try to squeeze more out of a struggling tax base, cut spending despite increasing demands from various quarters, or borrow more, adding to a rapidly rising debt pile. In the end, they chose a combination that favoured the latter. Due to the missing R50 billion, the budget deficit (the difference between spending and tax revenue) will be 4.3% of GDP for the current fiscal year instead of 3.1% as projected in February. This is a massive jump and much worse than expected. The deficit will narrow somewhat to 3.9%, but this will not be enough to stabilise Government’s debt level over the MTBPS’s three year forecast period. Instead, the ratio of debt to GDP will rise towards 60% by 2021.