SIM Investor Confidence Index: Investor sentiment drops in January

The Sanlam Investment Management (SIM) Investor Confidence Index survey is rendered by the Institute of Behavioural Finance (IBF)

The results of the Sanlam Investment Management (SIM) Investor Confidence Index, a monthly index that measures investor sentiment, indicate that South African investors have once again become more negative on the outlook for the local equity market during January, a reversal of the positive movements in the previous survey. This trend emerged in most of the topics surveyed.

According to Frederick White (pictured), head of SIM process and research, the December data showed some sharp improvements in confidence, especially among the advisor subgroup and particularly with respect to expected returns. “Among this group the 12 month expected increase in the All Share index jumped from eight percent in the November survey, to almost 13 percent in December. In the most recent survey it dropped back to 8.5 percent,” he said.

“On closer inspection of the last three months’ results, it becomes apparent that the recent movements have, to a large extent, simply been reversals of surprisingly large, positive movements in the December data,” said White.

Between the November market lows and mid December, global equity markets rallied by 15 to 20 percent and the local market rallied by nearly 25 percent. In addition, petrol prices declined significantly, the Rand strengthened and then stabilised after its rapid earlier slide and interest rates were cut aggressively (0.75 percent in US and Europe, one percent in UK and 0.5 percent locally).

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

According to Frederick White, head of SIM process and research, the December data showed some sharp improvements in confidence, especially among the advisor subgroup and particularly with respect to expected returns. “Among this group the 12 month expected increase in the All Share index jumped from eight percent in the November survey, to almost 13 percent in December. In the most recent survey it dropped back to 8.5 percent,” he said.

“On closer inspection of the last three months’ results, it becomes apparent that the recent movements have, to a large extent, simply been reversals of surprisingly large, positive movements in the December data,” said White.

Between the November market lows and mid December, global equity markets rallied by 15 to 20 percent and the local market rallied by nearly 25 percent. In addition, petrol prices declined significantly, the Rand strengthened and then stabilised after its rapid earlier slide and interest rates were cut aggressively (0.75 percent in US and Europe, one percent in UK and 0.5 percent locally).

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

According to Frederick White, head of SIM process and research, the December data showed some sharp improvements in confidence, especially among the advisor subgroup and particularly with respect to expected returns. “Among this group the 12 month expected increase in the All Share index jumped from eight percent in the November survey, to almost 13 percent in December. In the most recent survey it dropped back to 8.5 percent,” he said.

“On closer inspection of the last three months’ results, it becomes apparent that the recent movements have, to a large extent, simply been reversals of surprisingly large, positive movements in the December data,” said White.

Between the November market lows and mid December, global equity markets rallied by 15 to 20 percent and the local market rallied by nearly 25 percent. In addition, petrol prices declined significantly, the Rand strengthened and then stabilised after its rapid earlier slide and interest rates were cut aggressively (0.75 percent in US and Europe, one percent in UK and 0.5 percent locally).

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

According to Frederick White, head of SIM process and research, the December data showed some sharp improvements in confidence, especially among the advisor subgroup and particularly with respect to expected returns. “Among this group the 12 month expected increase in the All Share index jumped from eight percent in the November survey, to almost 13 percent in December. In the most recent survey it dropped back to 8.5 percent,” he said.

“On closer inspection of the last three months’ results, it becomes apparent that the recent movements have, to a large extent, simply been reversals of surprisingly large, positive movements in the December data,” said White.

Between the November market lows and mid December, global equity markets rallied by 15 to 20 percent and the local market rallied by nearly 25 percent. In addition, petrol prices declined significantly, the Rand strengthened and then stabilised after its rapid earlier slide and interest rates were cut aggressively (0.75 percent in US and Europe, one percent in UK and 0.5 percent locally).

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

According to Frederick White (pictured), head of SIM process and research, the December data showed some sharp improvements in confidence, especially among the advisor subgroup and particularly with respect to expected returns. “Among this group the 12 month expected increase in the All Share index jumped from eight percent in the November survey, to almost 13 percent in December. In the most recent survey it dropped back to 8.5 percent,” he said.

“On closer inspection of the last three months’ results, it becomes apparent that the recent movements have, to a large extent, simply been reversals of surprisingly large, positive movements in the December data,” said White.

Between the November market lows and mid December, global equity markets rallied by 15 to 20 percent and the local market rallied by nearly 25 percent. In addition, petrol prices declined significantly, the Rand strengthened and then stabilised after its rapid earlier slide and interest rates were cut aggressively (0.75 percent in US and Europe, one percent in UK and 0.5 percent locally).

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

According to Frederick White, head of SIM process and research, the December data showed some sharp improvements in confidence, especially among the advisor subgroup and particularly with respect to expected returns. “Among this group the 12 month expected increase in the All Share index jumped from eight percent in the November survey, to almost 13 percent in December. In the most recent survey it dropped back to 8.5 percent,” he said.

“On closer inspection of the last three months’ results, it becomes apparent that the recent movements have, to a large extent, simply been reversals of surprisingly large, positive movements in the December data,” said White.

Between the November market lows and mid December, global equity markets rallied by 15 to 20 percent and the local market rallied by nearly 25 percent. In addition, petrol prices declined significantly, the Rand strengthened and then stabilised after its rapid earlier slide and interest rates were cut aggressively (0.75 percent in US and Europe, one percent in UK and 0.5 percent locally).

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

According to Frederick White, head of SIM process and research, the December data showed some sharp improvements in confidence, especially among the advisor subgroup and particularly with respect to expected returns. “Among this group the 12 month expected increase in the All Share index jumped from eight percent in the November survey, to almost 13 percent in December. In the most recent survey it dropped back to 8.5 percent,” he said.

“On closer inspection of the last three months’ results, it becomes apparent that the recent movements have, to a large extent, simply been reversals of surprisingly large, positive movements in the December data,” said White.

Between the November market lows and mid December, global equity markets rallied by 15 to 20 percent and the local market rallied by nearly 25 percent. In addition, petrol prices declined significantly, the Rand strengthened and then stabilised after its rapid earlier slide and interest rates were cut aggressively (0.75 percent in US and Europe, one percent in UK and 0.5 percent locally).

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

According to Frederick White, head of SIM process and research, the December data showed some sharp improvements in confidence, especially among the advisor subgroup and particularly with respect to expected returns. “Among this group the 12 month expected increase in the All Share index jumped from eight percent in the November survey, to almost 13 percent in December. In the most recent survey it dropped back to 8.5 percent,” he said.

“On closer inspection of the last three months’ results, it becomes apparent that the recent movements have, to a large extent, simply been reversals of surprisingly large, positive movements in the December data,” said White.

Between the November market lows and mid December, global equity markets rallied by 15 to 20 percent and the local market rallied by nearly 25 percent. In addition, petrol prices declined significantly, the Rand strengthened and then stabilised after its rapid earlier slide and interest rates were cut aggressively (0.75 percent in US and Europe, one percent in UK and 0.5 percent locally).

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“This wave of positive news, following a period of relentless negative news in the months before, may have lead to the improved outlook expressed by the advisor group in the December survey,” he said.

Between the December and January survey periods, global markets resumed their negative trend, declining by about ten percent in early January. There have also been renewed negative surprises on both the global economic news flow as well as corporate earnings fronts, and the Rand depreciated again. White believes that these factors contributed largely to the deterioration of sentiment in January.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.

 

“The average for all participants of the twelve month increase in the index is back down to 8.2 percent. If one adds the average dividend yield at the time of the survey of about 4.3 percent, the implied 12 month expected total return from equities is 12.5 percent,” says White.

“With the positive outlook for inflation, which is expected to be well within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of this year, this implies a real return of somewhere between seven and eight percent. This compares well with the average long-term historical returns that were achieved in the SA equity market.

“Local investors currently expect trend returns from equities, despite the fact that the majority of them still view the market as too cheap (55 percent - compared to only 13 percent who believe it is too expensive). There also is very little short term bias in investors’ expectations, with the implied returns for the shorter-term periods being close to the pro rata performance of the 12 month return,” concludes White.