Can Africa reduce the impact of the US Dollar on its Emerging Markets?
20 March 2023
Whenever I meet clients and investors, the one discussion I always end up having, regardless of market conditions, is on currency markets. There are often strong views expressed about why domestic policy direction or the price of key tradable goods or services is leading to one’s home currency strengthening or weakening. The discussion we don’t have often enough, though, is the over-sized impact the movements of the US Dollar can cause upon Emerging Market countries and is there any way to reduce this over time. While policy and trade are usually the main drivers of major currencies, I often point out that currencies, and their drivers, are relative, not absolute. Therefore, any discussion of policy or external balances of an economy matters, but primarily in relation to the policy or external balances of the economy’s major trade partners.