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Forecasting in financial markets is dangerous

06 February 2017

2017, at this point at least, seems to promise more positivity for the investment world than last year did.

Low growth, high debt. How did we get here?

03 February 2017

‘Today we live in a world with very low interest rates, which are likely to cause very low returns from global bonds and which have changed the pricing levels on all alternative asset classes,’ says Frederick White, co-manager of the Sanlam Investment Management (SIM) Balanced Fund. It is also a highly indebted world, incentivising governments to keep interest rates low, which could allow some inflation into the system. And rising protectionism could reduce trade and contribute further to inflation. It is also a world in which China’s growth is slowing and emerging markets, including South Africa, are adapting to the hardship following the downturn in the commodities cycle.

Asset allocation: greater investment optimism heading into 2017

02 February 2017

Uncertainty continues to dominate global markets – think Trump as US president, the Brexit process gaining momentum and potentially high-stakes elections in Europe. On the local front, the ANC leadership succession battle is starting to heat up. Investors may be forgiven for feeling jittery going into 2017. While I do believe our nerves will continue to be sorely tested, I’m more optimistic about investment prospects for the year ahead compared to those of 2016 – especially looking beyond the daily ‘noise’ at the crucial considerations of price, perspective and pattern.

Investment themes to watch in 2017

02 February 2017

Most people would not have predicted that offshore assets would end up becoming the worst performers in 2016 after being the best performing assets in 2015. And it is unlikely that the world thought a Trump presidency or Brexit were possible, or that it would be George Michael’s last Christmas. 2016 showed us that surprises are part of the course. Similarly, there is likely more in store for 2017. To help you prepare we discuss some of the strong themes likely to dominate financial markets in 2017. These reinforce the importance of creating robust and well-diversified investment portfolios and maintaining a long-term mindset.

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