Making sense of shifts and swings
24 April 2018
Financial market activity is often dominated by particular themes or narratives. Sometimes these storylines are created after the fact to explain random market movements, but they are often based in reality. Towards the end of 2017, the dominant theme was ‘synchronised global growth’. Though this narrative appears to have taken a backseat to worries over a trade war between the US and China, global growth is still pretty solid. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest set of forecasts, released ahead of its annual gathering in Washington, expects real global growth of 3.9% this year and next year, up from 3.7% in 2017 at the fastest pace since the initial post-crisis bounce in 2011.