The Monty Hall problem: Why your investment instincts can lead you astray
02 December 2025
Many investors rely on their instincts when making financial decisions, assuming that what feels right must be correct. But history shows that gut feelings can be dangerously misleading – especially in markets driven by sentiment, like the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s or today’s mania for US and AI stocks. The Monty Hall problem, a well-known probability puzzle, offers a powerful lesson in why intuition often clashes with reality, explains Dan Brocklebank of Orbis Investments.