On investing, golf, skill and luck
Every year millions of golf fans look forward with great anticipation to The Masters tournament played at the prestigious Augusta course in Georgia, USA. Held in mid-April 2026, this year’s winner was Rory McIlroy, who made history by becoming only the fourth player ever to clinch the title back-to-back. But the path to victory was not straight forward, with one shot determining the difference between winning and losing. When it comes down to it, is it luck or skill that determines the outcome, and how should investors think about the role of each?
The odds were stacked against Rory McIlroy, with the prediction from Data Golf on the penultimate day of the tournament showing that his chances of winning had plummeted from 69% to 31%. On Sunday April 12, the pressure mounted: A misjudged shot on the 15th hole nearly landed in the water but disaster was averted, a moment McIlroy admitted had him thanking his lucky stars. Then, a wayward drive on the 18th flew deep into the trees, leaving him scrambling. Despite this, he secured a one-shot victory over world number 1 Scottie Scheffler. Was it luck, or skill?
“We may never know to what extent luck may have played a part in the game, but moments like these rarely come down to chance alone,” says Mark Dunley-Owen, portfolio manager at Orbis, Allan Gray’s offshore investment partner.
He says that in both golf and investing, outcomes can be influenced by unpredictable factors in the short term, but over time, it is skill – grounded in discipline, preparation and a consistent process – that drives success.
“A single shot, like a single investment outcome, can look like luck, but the more you practice a skill, the more control you have over the outcome,” he says, adding that successful investing is less about predicting outcomes and more about consistently applying a sound process. “While luck will always play a role, a consistent and well-executed process can, over time, tilt the odds in your favour,” he says.
Below Dunley-Owen shares some of the parallels between golf and investing in understanding the interplay between luck and skill, that offer invaluable lessons when building long term wealth.
Challenging courses, and markets, separate skill from luck
“The best golf players in the world prefer to play the hardest courses since that is where skill has the greatest opportunity to shine,” says Dunley-Owen, adding that challenging courses reward golfers who adopt a calculated approach.
“Likewise, skilled asset managers tend to enjoy the opportunities presented by more challenging markets.”
In calm markets, outcomes can often look similar across investors, making it difficult to distinguish between luck and genuine skill. However, in more volatile environments, the advantage shifts to those with a disciplined, well-tested investment process.
Perseverance is key
McIlroy’s first Masters victory came in his 17th appearance at Augusta in 2025, a reminder that success followed years of trying, falling short, and trying again. Today, he is the sixth male golfer in history to complete the career Grand Slam, and his latest win places him alongside Jack Nicklaus, Sir Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods as one of the few to successfully defend a Masters title.
“It is easy to focus only on the wins and overlook the many missed shots and near losses along the way. As McIlroy himself noted, there are far more losses than wins in golf, but what sets the greats apart is their ability to persist without abandoning their approach,” explains Dunley-Owen.
He says that same is true in investing. “Periods of discomfort are inevitable as markets can be volatile, and there will be stretches where little goes your way. The key is to remain disciplined and stay the course. Achieving a solid long-term track record does not mean getting every decision correct.”
Preparation is better than prediction
In the lead-up to the tournament, McIlroy focused almost exclusively on Augusta, making day trips to play the course and making it part of his weekly routine.
“While this approach has come under some scrutiny, it is clear that a cornerstone of his strategy was preparation,” comments Dunley-Owen. Similarly, he says, in investing, planning – not prediction – is a better strategy to adopt.
“Having said that, it is important to understand that one should not ignore risks in the environment.”
Past performance is not an indicator of future success
“Even elite skill does not translate into guaranteed outcomes from one year to the next,” says Dunley-Owen.
Although this was McIlroy’s second consecutive win at the tournament, in reflecting on the journey, he has spoken about how the pressure of trying to win the Masters and complete a career Grand Slam can make the task feel difficult.
“An investment environment can turn yesterday’s winners into tomorrow’s underperformers. The discipline lies not in chasing repetition of past success, but in sticking to the approach that has been tested and delivered consistently over the long-term,” concludes Dunley-Owen.
