How the closure of Hormuz has opened up energy opportunities

The disruption triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has galvanised nations to shore up energy security. As previous oil shocks have shown, the ramifications – and opportunities – could be huge.

The energy shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February 2026 is reverberating through the world economy, with the full extent of its impact – including likely complex knock-on effects – far from clear. This is the second major energy shock of the 2020s, with many economies still adjusting to the first triggered in 2022 by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Looking further back to comparable shocks of the 1970s highlights the potentially profound consequences that could stretch decades ahead. As nations and trade blocs rush to fortify their energy supplies, they embark on new policy directions with implications touching every industry and asset class. For investors this brings new risks, as well as opportunities. It may, for example, throw open policy revisions relating to hydrocarbon projects. But it could also reinforce the case for a “decarbonisation dividend”, with homegrown, low carbon energy reducing import dependency. In this paper we take an investor’s view of the current crisis, seeking to identify likely scenarios to emerge from the disruption and the opportunities these might present.

The energy shock of 2026: who is most exposed – and why it matters

Asian economies are likely to be hit hardest by the disruption. They import more than 80% of the oil and gas shipments that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving them highly vulnerable to supply interruptions and price spikes. Europe’s direct exposure is smaller. It imports only around 5% of its crude oil and 13% of its LNG via the Strait, but it is far from insulated. Energy is priced in global markets, and a scramble for LNG cargoes – with Europe and Asia competing head-to-head – could keep prices elevated for longer.

Vulnerability is greatest where import dependence is highest. In Asia, Japan appears most exposed to rising fossil fuel prices, importing 84% of its energy demand, followed closely by South Korea at around 80%. In Europe, Italy, Spain and Germany import more than two-thirds of their energy. With trade routes disrupted and energy costs rising, these economies face a classic stagflation threat: weaker growth alongside renewed inflationary pressure.

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