Economic commentary - latest global growth forecasts: Schroders slashes US growth forecast
02 June 2025 | Investments | Economy | David Rees, Senior Economist at Schroders
David Rees
A Snapshot of the world economy – commentary:
Tariff uncertainty let to stockpiling in Q1, which had dented US growth. We have therefore cut our US growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7% from 2.5%. Notwithstanding this, we expect growth to rebound in the US to 2.4% in 2026.
Beyond tariffs, however, rising US sovereign debt is a concern for markets.
In China, push and pull factors are affecting growth. While 30% US tariffs on Chinese exports should be manageable, the domestic economy remains weak leaving our 2025 growth forecast unchanged at 4%.
