CPI for September 2025

The consumer price index (CPI), year-on-year, rose slightly to 3.4% in September from 3.3% in August. On a month-to-month basis, prices increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% decline in August.

The mild uptick reflects higher services and housing-related costs, partially offset by lower goods and fuel prices. The latest print aligns with the SARB’s September MPC expectation that inflation would stabilise near the lower end of the 3% to 6% historic range before a modest rise toward 4% in the fourth quarter.

Housing and utilities inflation remained elevated at 4.5%, contributing 1.1% to the headline rate (the single largest contributor). Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation held at 4.5%, adding 0.8% to overall CPI. Services inflation accelerated to 3.9% year-on-year, while goods inflation eased to 2.9%. Transport inflation remained negative, reflecting the lagged effect of the prior decline in the oil price.

At its most recent meeting, the SARB kept the repo rate unchanged at 7%, following three cuts earlier in the year. The MPC noted that “underlying inflation remains contained near 3%” but reiterated the need to anchor inflation expectations at or below 4% before considering further easing.

This month’s CPI print confirms that inflation indeed remains well-anchored. The environment validates the SARB’s cautious hold stance, in contrast to market expectations that continue to price in further gradual easing into 2026. For investors, disinflation underpins a constructive outlook for interest rate sensitive assets, while bolstering the rand’s relative appeal.