And now for something politically different
It can be difficult to measure the macroeconomic and political ‘temperature’ of a country when you rely solely on asset manager outlook presentations. Those who manage billions of rand for South African investors tend to spin every bit of drama into something positive, because assets under management accrue on confidence as much as on fundamentals.
An excellent return year
Local fund managers have had plenty to crow about entering the New Year. Local equities, as measured by the JSE All Share Index, returned just over 38% over 2025, with both the SA All Bond and SA Listed Property indices ending more than 20% stronger. And the handful of investors sticking with the country’s struggling resources sector were treated to a 120% surge on the back of soaring gold and platinum group metals (PGM) prices. This enthusiasm and positivity leaked into the keynote address at the PSG Asset Managers 2026 Outlook presentation, held in Pretoria recently.
To be fair, broadcaster, journalist and speaker Mandy Wiener needs little prompting to put a positive spin on things. So, despite spending over two decades immersed in stories about corruption, malfeasance and all manner of business and political wrongdoing, her presentation skewed towards the “amazing stories” of entrepreneurship and resilience that so often define our beautiful country. She noted that journalists had to look at situations and provide interpretation and analysis.
Then followed a comment that your writer found somewhat abrasive. The presenter declared there was “no such thing as objectivity” in reporting, and that all journalism is influenced by lived experience. Could this be the central problem with 21st Century news? Yes, there is such a thing as objectivity. And journalists, especially those reporting on events, should present the facts objectively without repurposing them to fit an ideology or narrative. Apologies for the aside, dear reader, but glossing over objective truth is why the world is in such a mess presently.
As bad as the captured State
Let’s steer the discussion back to the political context in which South African asset managers and investors will make their asset allocation decisions this year. According to Wiener, the first half of 2026 will be dominated by stories from the Madlanga Enquiry, including horrifying details of how law enforcement, politicians and organised crime intersect in this country. “We are hearing about the extent of the capture of the police and law enforcement … nothing surprises us anymore,” she said, adding that a “reset of law enforcement” was overdue.
As so many pro South Africa commentators before her, the presenter hauled out the Proteas and Springboks as reasons to celebrate. “There is a lot to celebrate about this country, and a lot of that drives national unity,” she said. Our lived experience supports this, as there is nothing better than winning consecutive Rugby World Cups to supplant existential despondency with feelings of euphoria and patriotism. This enthusiasm aside, many locals are biting through their fingernails in anticipation of the 2026 provincial elections, most likely in early December.
Wiener said that she was fortunate to spend 90 minutes with President Cyril Ramaphosa sometime after the ruling African National Congress’ (ANC’s) dismal performance in the 2024 National Elections. “The President told me that he genuinely believed the ANC was going to get 56% of the vote last year … he thought that the R350 Social Relief of Distress grant was making such an enormous difference to people’s lives that they would vote for the ANC,” she said. How sad that the very politicians who swan around Davos and other global platforms, dropping millions of rand per trip, believe R350 is all it takes to secure a vote.
The disconnected elite
The ANC’s performance at the 2024 polls can be attributed to an electorate who view the world through a different lens. Unlike the ruling elite who enjoy blue light VIP convoys, fat monthly pay packets that include private medical aids and pensions, and taxpayer funded trips to everywhere, the voting fodder must navigate lacklustre economic growth, poverty and unemployment with limited social support. However, there are promising signs of a turnaround that could change voter perspectives over the coming year.
The keynote speaker trotted out some of the macroeconomic signals that give reason for hope, including benign inflation, credit ratings upgrades, a resurgent rand and the country’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list. “But for me, what is so encouraging is the stories of entrepreneurship that you hear in this country, of people that thrive in spite of the economic situation,” Wiener said. “It is amazing what is happening in the informal sector.” Reference was made to recent claims by Gerrie Fourie, CEO of Capitec Bank, that the country’s unemployment rate may be closer to 10% than the 30-plus percent reported by Stats SA.
Fair point, but the elephant in this debate is that a burgeoning informal sector occurs from necessity, thriving in failed state scenarios. Hence the presentation’s brief ‘dive’ into pervasive lawlessness and the myriad infrastructure afflictions that plague South Africa Inc, notably in transport and logistics and water. Under the former, Wiener lamented the rise of the construction mafia before labelling the scourge of targeted assassinations as a serious red flag for the country: “When the underworld filters into the overworld, and people start doing business through the barrel of a gun, you really need to worry.”
Addressing SA’s inherent cynicism
Counters to South Africa’s “inherent cynicism” include renewed investments into infrastructure by both government and the private sector; the revitalisation of Eskom; improved freight throughputs at Durban Harbour; private participation in certain Transnet rail corridors; and the oft-praised Operational Vulindlela. The presenter was also full of praise for civil society initiatives to plug gaps in political leadership, notably Equal Education, Freedom Under Law, the Helen Suzman Foundation and the Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse (OUTA).
What does the future hold? On the local front, commentators will be keeping a close eye on the Democratic Alliance (DA) elective conference in April; who replaces outgoing South African Revenue Services (SARS) Commissioner, Edward Kieswetter; and how incoming NPA head, Andy Mothibi, handles his critical portfolio. Longer term the next major destabilising risk lies in the ANC’s 2027 succession battle, with plenty of uncertainty around Ramaphosa’s replacement.
Commenting on the 2026 elections, Wiener warned of things getting “pretty messy” between the GNU partners. The presenter likened the GNU to an unhappy marriage held together for the sake of the kids, arguing that the EFF or MK alternatives were too destabilising to contemplate. “I foresee a situation where most of the metros in the country end up being governed by coalitions ,” she said, before calling for a revision of the electoral thresholds for smaller parties. Your writer agrees wholeheartedly: We need fewer parties on the ballot, and fewer small parties being allocated seats in government.
Choose your partners wisely
Globally, all eyes will be on the outcome of the mid-term elections in the United States (US) as well as how the myriad confrontations between the US and the rest play out. Everyone is already choosing sides. For example, Wiener said she was blown away by 30 seconds of Canada’s PM, Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum but could not follow a word of US President Donald Trump’s hour-long address to the US public the day prior.
“South Africa needs to decide where we are sitting in terms of international relations,” Wiener said. “The best foreign policy will probably be to kick the can down the road until November, when the mid-terms are held.” If only our politicians would heed this advice. Instead, our defence force recently ignored the President’s instructions to exclude Iran from an already sketchy naval exercise with China and Russia. But that, dear reader, is a story for another day.
Writer’s thoughts:
Political developments have a significant impact on market sentiment and client behaviour. How important do you find up-to-date political insight in your client interactions, and who do you trust to provide it? Please comment below, interact with us on X at @fanews_online or email us your thoughts [email protected].
